How many EV bets are there in a day?

It depends on the calendar. A full NBA and MLB slate can surface dozens; a quiet offseason Tuesday may surface a handful. A short list is not a broken screen — we do not pad it to look busy.

Does EV betting actually work?

Only slowly, and not for everyone. A typical play is priced about 1–5% better than we think it should be, so that difference only shows across hundreds of bets, and a bad run can bury it for weeks. Nothing here is a guarantee — every Parlae pick is graded in public, losses included, so the record can be checked rather than claimed.

EV betting: find prices that pay more than they should

We work out what each bet is really worth, flag every US sportsbook paying more than that, and grade every pick in public.

Return on money staked, all picks to date

+2.9%

Across 4,882 graded picks: 2,474 won, 2,302 lost, 106 tied. Past results, not a forecast.

Last updated Sep 18, 2026 at 7:38 AM ET · See every graded pick

What an EV bet is

Every bet has a real chance of coming in. Turn that chance into odds and you have what the bet is really worth — its fair price. When a sportsbook offers longer odds than that, you are being paid more than the risk deserves. That is the whole idea behind EV betting (positive expected value, or +EV), and it is the only thing we look for.

So the job is not picking winners — it is being overpaid on the ones you pick. Any single bet can still lose, and a losing month is normal rather than a sign something has broken.

How we work out what a bet is worth

A few markets price sport unusually well, because they take large bets from professionals and move within seconds of team news: Pinnacle, Betfair Exchange, and real-money prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket. We start from those prices, strip out the cut a sportsbook builds into every line (the vig), and compare what is left with every US sportsbook quote we hold.

Anything a book is offering at longer odds than that becomes a play, stamped with the price, the book, and the time it appeared. Prices move, so the number you see is the number at that moment.

Common questions

How many EV bets are there in a day?
It depends on the calendar. A full NBA and MLB slate can surface dozens; a quiet offseason Tuesday may surface a handful. A short list is not a broken screen — we do not pad it to look busy.
Does EV betting actually work?
Only slowly, and not for everyone. A typical play is priced about 1–5% better than we think it should be, so that difference only shows across hundreds of bets, and a bad run can bury it for weeks. Nothing here is a guarantee — every Parlae pick is graded in public, losses included, so the record can be checked rather than claimed.

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