How the math works
Every pick comes from published sportsbook prices and arithmetic you can redo by hand.
- Collect the prices. We read the same bet at dozens of sportsbooks, weighting the books that are hardest to beat.
- Remove the sportsbook's cut. Every price has a built-in fee (the vig). Stripping it out (de-vig) leaves what the bet is really worth (fair odds).
- Flag the good prices. When a book pays noticeably more than that fair price, the bet is better priced than it should be (positive expected value, or +EV) and becomes a pick.
- Grade every pick in public. Wins and losses both stay on the record.
How picks get graded
- Game bets (winner, point spread, total) settle against the official final score, read from our odds provider with ESPN's public scoreboard as the backup for the major US leagues.
- Player props settle against the player's official box-score line for that game.
- What we can't grade stays “Pending”. A few sports (tennis, MMA, some overseas leagues) lack a reliable score feed, and half-game or three-outcome bets need period scores we don't have.
- Nothing moves after we publish. Every pick settles at the price we posted — never re-priced, never quietly deleted. The track record counts graded picks only, says what share of picks that is, and flags anything still ungraded 72 hours after the game started.
Check the math yourself
The no-vig calculator and the fair-odds tool reproduce these numbers for any two- or three-way market you paste in. If a Parlae price differs from them by more than half a percentage point on the same input, that's a bug — email us.