Strategy Guide
Positive EV betting — the complete workflow.
The full +EV stack: sharp consensus, no-vig fair pricing, Kelly sizing, line shopping, and CLV tracking. Everything you need to actually win.
Step 1 — Build a fair-price baseline
Pull odds from sharp books (Pinnacle, Betfair Exchange) plus prediction markets (Kalshi, Polymarket). Strip the vig. The result is the best public estimate of true probability for every market.
Step 2 — Scan recreational books for soft lines
Compare DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars, ESPN BET, Fanatics, and every other US book to your fair price. Anything offered at longer odds than fair is +EV.
Parlae automates steps 1 and 2 in real time across 20+ books and every major sport.
Step 3 — Size with Kelly
Calculate Kelly stake based on your edge, odds, and bankroll. Use quarter or half Kelly to control variance. Never bet more than 5% of bankroll on a single play, even if Kelly suggests it.
Step 4 — Track CLV
Log the closing price of every bet you place. If your average price beats closing consistently (positive CLV), you have a real edge — even if your short-term P&L is negative.
Step 5 — Manage book longevity
Spread action across many books. Mix +EV bets with occasional straight bets. Avoid round-number stakes. Withdraw infrequently. None of this is bulletproof but all of it extends how long books leave you alone.
Frequently asked questions
What's the best sport for +EV?
Whichever sport has the softest player props at the books you use. NBA and MLB props are typically the most beatable; NFL is harder but offers more weekly volume.
What's CLV?
Closing line value — the difference between the price you got and the closing price. Beating the closing line consistently is the strongest leading indicator of long-term profit.
How big should my bankroll be?
Start with at least 100x your average bet size. With quarter-Kelly sizing, that survives normal variance even through losing streaks.
What tools do I actually need?
An odds scanner (Parlae), accounts at 5+ books, a Kelly calculator, and a CLV tracker. That's it.