How much to risk (Kelly)
The most to put on one bet, from your budget and how good the price is — a ceiling, not a target.
Suggested maximum stake· quarter Kelly
$35.23 — 3.5% of budget
A quarter of what the full formula allows, because the full amount swings harder than most people can sit through.
Your own view of how often this wins — not the chance built into the sportsbook's price