Calculator

Bonus Bet (Free Bet) Calculator — Maximize Promo EV

A bonus bet (free bet) is different from cash — if it wins, you keep the profit but not the stake. That means the true value of a $100 free bet is less than $100. Enter the bonus amount and the odds you plan to use it at to see the expected cash value.

Expected cash value
$75.00
Profit if wins
$300.00
Win probability
25.00%
EV ($)
$75.00

Expected cash value is what the bonus is actually worth in real money. Higher odds increase cash value up to a point — above +700 the win probability is too low.

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The face value of the free bet credited to your account

Sweet spot is +300 to +700 — free bets only return profit, not the stake itself

How this works

Formula

EV_bonus = bonus × (decimal - 1) / decimal × (1 - vig_adjustment)

Worked example

$100 free bet at +300 (4.00 decimal) → EV ≈ $100 × 3 / 4 = $75 expected cash value.

FAQ

What's the optimal odds for a free bet?

Generally +300 to +700. Too low and the small stake-return is wasted; too high and variance dominates.

Is a $100 free bet worth $100?

No — only the profit converts to cash, not the stake. Most free bets are worth 60–80% of face value.

Can I convert free bets to cash?

Indirectly, via low-risk hedging. Bet the free bet on one side and hedge with real money on the opposite side at another book.

Do bonus bets expire?

Yes — typically 7–14 days. Plan their use before grabbing the promo.

What about deposit-match promos?

Deposit matches require playthrough. Calculate effective bonus value as match × (1 - playthrough_vig_drag).

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