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Convert a spread to a moneyline

A moneyline is the price on a team simply winning — enter a spread to see the moneyline it's worth, and the win chance behind it.

Equivalent price to win outright (moneyline)
-141
Chance of winning outright
58.6%

In the NFL, a 3-point favorite wins the game outright about 58.6% of the time — the same as a price of -141. If a sportsbook's price on that same team pays better than this, backing it to simply win is the better price of the two.

Minus for the favorite (-3 means winning by more than 3 points), plus for the underdog.

Price buying a half-point

What an NFL spread is worth as a moneyline

  • Favorite's spread -1.5

    Win chance
    54.3%
    Equivalent moneyline
    -119
  • Favorite's spread -2.5

    Win chance
    57.2%
    Equivalent moneyline
    -133
  • Favorite's spread -3

    Win chance
    58.6%
    Equivalent moneyline
    -141
  • Favorite's spread -3.5

    Win chance
    60.0%
    Equivalent moneyline
    -150
  • Favorite's spread -4.5

    Win chance
    62.7%
    Equivalent moneyline
    -168
  • Favorite's spread -6.5

    Win chance
    68.0%
    Equivalent moneyline
    -213
  • Favorite's spread -7

    Win chance
    69.3%
    Equivalent moneyline
    -226
  • Favorite's spread -7.5

    Win chance
    70.6%
    Equivalent moneyline
    -240
  • Favorite's spread -10

    Win chance
    76.5%
    Equivalent moneyline
    -325
  • Favorite's spread -14

    Win chance
    84.4%
    Equivalent moneyline
    -540

The underdog is the other half of each row: getting 3 points, that team wins outright about 41.4% of the time, a price of +141.