Poisson calculator
Enter a team's average scoring rate and a line to see how likely each total is (a Poisson model).
Chance of the Over
48.1%
Chance of the Under
51.9%
| Exactly 0 | 7.4% |
|---|---|
| Exactly 1 | 19.3% |
| Exactly 2 | 25.1% |
| Exactly 3 | 21.8% |
| Exactly 4 | 14.1% |
| Exactly 5 | 7.4% |
| Exactly 6 | 3.2% |
| Exactly 7 | 1.2% |
| Exactly 8 | 0.4% |
| Exactly 9 | 0.1% |
If a book's price implies a clearly smaller chance than your model does, that side may be worth a look.
Average expected events per game — e.g. total expected goals, runs, or points