How we grade every pick
Every pick is saved the moment we publish it and settled at that exact price — never edited afterwards.
wins · losses · ties — a tie returns your stake
the same stake on every pick
of 1,146 picks with a recorded closing price
What "graded" means
A pick enters the record the second the engine publishes it. We store the sportsbook, the price, our estimate of the bet's real chance of winning, and the timestamp. Nothing in that row can change afterwards. When the game finishes we settle the pick against the official result at the price we recommended — not at a better number we could have found later.
A record assembled after the fact can quietly let a losing bet be re-priced into a winner, or dropped altogether. This one is written before the game is played.
What the record counts
The engine has captured 5,782 picks since June 21, 2026, and 5,266 of them are on games that have finished and been graded. Only those graded picks count toward the record, which updates as more games settle.
Because every pick is scored at the same stake, no single oversized bet can carry the record. Counted that way, the return on the total amount risked (ROI) is +2.9%.
Did the price move our way
Win rate is mostly luck for a long time: at typical sportsbook prices, a genuinely sharp bettor and a break-even one can look identical for hundreds of bets. So the figure we steer by is whether the market keeps moving toward our side after we post a pick. The closing price is the last price before the game starts, and beating it is what experts call closing-line value (CLV).
The price has moved our way on 85.3% of the 1,146 picks where a closing price was recorded, and on average the price we posted was +3.4% better than the final one. If our prices keep beating the market's final word, the picks were on the right side of the price. Win rate and return are the slower confirmation, and neither one makes any single bet safe.