Vs the line: who beat the books in 2025

Beat the books mostChristian McCaffrey52-35 · 60%Books won the yearMike Gesicki13-27 · 33%Most lines gradedBaker Mayfield36-52 · 41%

#	Player	Record	Cover rate	Lines
1	Christian McCaffreyRBSFboard 256	52-35	60%	87
2	Tucker KraftTEGBboard 61	14-11	56%	25
3	Garrett WilsonWRNYJboard 38	12-10	55%	22
4	Jameis WinstonQBNYGboard 317	6-5	55%	11
5	James CookRBBUFboard 18	44-37	54%	81
6	Alec PierceWRINDboard 288	23-20	53%	43
7	Zach CharbonnetRBSEAboard 90	42-38	53%	80
8	D'Andre SwiftRBCHIboard 22	42-39	52%	81
9	Christian WatsonWRGBboard 32	14-13	52%	27
10	Chris OlaveWRNOboard 265	25-24	51%	49
11	Colston LovelandTECHIboard 69	25-24	51%	49
12	Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWRSEAboard 4	28-27	51%	55
13	RJ HarveyRBDENboard 78	42-42	50%	84
14	Trey McBrideTEARIboard 8	27-27	50%	54
15	Dalton KincaidTEBUFboard 84	17-17	50%	34
16	Amon-Ra St. BrownWRDETboard 9	26-27	49%	53
17	Courtland SuttonWRDENboard 103	26-27	49%	53
18	Zonovan KnightRBARIboard 330	23-24	49%	47
19	Kyren WilliamsRBLARboard 13	42-44	49%	86
20	Jonathan TaylorRBINDboard 40	40-42	49%	82
21	Josh JacobsRBGBboard 21	37-39	49%	76
22	Josh AllenQBBUFboard 19	40-43	48%	83
23	George PickensWRDALboard 34	24-26	48%	50
24	Kendre MillerRBNOboard 322	12-13	48%	25
25	Omarion HamptonRBLACboard 99	22-24	48%	46
26	Parker WashingtonWRJAXboard 30	22-24	48%	46
27	Travis EtienneRBNOboard 269	41-45	48%	86
28	De'Von AchaneRBMIAboard 264	38-42	48%	80
29	Bijan RobinsonRBATLboard 2	40-45	47%	85
30	Tee HigginsWRCINboard 28	22-25	47%	47
31	Tyler AllgeierRBARIboard 171	35-40	47%	75
32	Javonte WilliamsRBDALboard 10	37-43	46%	80
33	Tyler ShoughQBNOboard 267	24-28	46%	52
34	Bucky IrvingRBTBboard 17	23-27	46%	50
35	Khalil ShakirWRBUFboard 88	23-27	46%	50
36	Chase BrownRBCINboard 15	39-46	46%	85
37	Greg DulcichTEMIAboard 135	11-13	46%	24
38	Pat FreiermuthTEPITboard 156	23-28	45%	51
39	Drake MayeQBNEboard 58	39-48	45%	87
40	Jalen CokerWRCARboard 43	16-20	44%	36
41	Sam LaPortaTEDETboard 64	12-15	44%	27
42	Troy FranklinWRDENboard 201	23-29	44%	52
43	Mack HollinsWRNEboard 324	19-24	44%	43
44	Harold FanninTECLEboard 116	22-28	44%	50
45	Puka NacuaWRLARboard 3	29-37	44%	66
46	Jameson WilliamsWRDETboard 65	28-36	44%	64
47	Ryan FlournoyWRDALboard 101	16-21	43%	37
48	Derrick HenryRBBALboard 14	37-49	43%	86
49	Gunnar HelmTETENboard 174	21-28	43%	49
50	Hunter HenryTENEboard 59	23-31	43%	54
51	Brock PurdyQBSFboard 233	20-27	43%	47
52	Jahmyr GibbsRBDETboard 1	36-49	42%	85
53	Kenny GainwellRBTBboard 142	36-49	42%	85
54	Ja'Marr ChaseWRCINboard 7	22-30	42%	52
55	Juwan JohnsonTENOboard 239	22-30	42%	52
56	J.K. DobbinsRBDENboard 91	21-29	42%	50
57	Woody MarksRBHOUboard 301	21-29	42%	50
58	Jaxson DartQBNYGboard 261	26-36	42%	62
59	Tony PollardRBTENboard 33	36-51	41%	87
60	Terry McLaurinWRWASboard 282	12-17	41%	29
61	Dallas GoedertTEPHIboard 66	19-27	41%	46
62	T.J. HockensonTEMINboard 76	19-27	41%	46
63	Jacoby BrissettQBARIboard 82	26-37	41%	63
64	Jayden HigginsWRHOUboard 253	21-30	41%	51
65	George KittleTESFboard 234	14-20	41%	34
66	Chris RodriguezRBJAXboard 93	16-23	41%	39
67	Baker MayfieldQBTBboard 107	36-52	41%	88
68	Quentin JohnstonWRLACboard 134	18-26	41%	44
69	Jauan JenningsWRMINboard 202	20-29	41%	49
70	Ashton JeantyRBLVboard 25	35-51	41%	86
71	Rashee RiceWRKCboard 60	13-19	41%	32
72	Chig OkonkwoTEWASboard 122	15-22	41%	37
73	Drake LondonWRATLboard 20	15-22	41%	37
74	Davante AdamsWRLARboard 289	17-25	40%	42
75	Michael CarterRBTENboard 173	19-28	40%	47
76	Michael PittmanWRPITboard 278	21-31	40%	52
77	Xavier HutchinsonWRHOUboard 329	21-31	40%	52
78	Trevor LawrenceQBJAXboard 80	35-52	40%	87
79	Kenneth WalkerRBKCboard 5	34-51	40%	85
80	Tyrone TracyRBNYGboard 242	30-45	40%	75
81	Tyjae SpearsRBTENboard 149	26-39	40%	65
82	Carson WentzQBMINboard 308	10-15	40%	25
83	Kyler MurrayQBMINboard 75	10-15	40%	25
84	Cam SkatteboRBNYGboard 270	4-6	40%	10
85	Dalton SchultzTEHOUboard 252	20-31	39%	51
86	Jake FergusonTEDALboard 161	20-31	39%	51
87	Caleb WilliamsQBCHIboard 79	34-53	39%	87
88	Zay FlowersWRBALboard 11	25-39	39%	64
89	Rome OdunzeWRCHIboard 100	14-22	39%	36
90	Jaylen WaddleWRDENboard 95	19-30	39%	49
91	Jaylen WarrenRBPITboard 24	31-49	39%	80
92	Patrick MahomesQBKCboard 108	27-43	39%	70
93	Dak PrescottQBDALboard 36	32-51	39%	83
94	Saquon BarkleyRBPHIboard 47	31-50	38%	81
95	Michael WilsonWRARIboard 42	21-34	38%	55
96	Rashid ShaheedWRSEAboard 219	24-39	38%	63
97	Deebo SamuelWRSFboard 279	27-44	38%	71
98	Kyle PittsTEATLboard 118	20-33	38%	53
99	A.J. BrownWRNEboard 56	18-30	38%	48
100	Cade OttonTETBboard 119	18-30	38%	48
101	Luther BurdenWRCHIboard 49	18-30	38%	48
102	Tory HortonWRSEAboard 178	9-15	38%	24
103	Tyler HuntleyQBBALboard 92	6-10	38%	16
104	David MontgomeryRBHOUboard 258	31-52	37%	83
105	Blake CorumRBLARboard 63	25-42	37%	67
106	Isaac TeSlaaWRDETboard 189	19-32	37%	51
107	Rhamondre StevensonRBNEboard 16	26-44	37%	70
108	Jayden DanielsQBWASboard 53	13-22	37%	35
109	DK MetcalfWRPITboard 50	17-29	37%	46
110	Rico DowdleRBPITboard 74	31-53	37%	84
111	Jordan MasonRBMINboard 41	28-48	37%	76
112	Kyle MonangaiRBCHIboard 167	28-48	37%	76
113	AJ BarnerTESEAboard 125	21-36	37%	57
114	Dawson KnoxTEBUFboard 210	18-31	37%	49
115	Tyler HigbeeTELARboard 97	11-19	37%	30
116	Darnell WashingtonTEPITboard 162	15-26	37%	41
117	Travis KelceTEKCboard 67	19-33	37%	52
118	Malik WashingtonWRMIAboard 72	23-40	37%	63
119	Ty JohnsonRBBUFboard 150	23-40	37%	63
120	Nico CollinsWRHOUboard 306	17-30	36%	47
121	Matthew StaffordQBLARboard 114	30-53	36%	83
122	Keaton MitchellRBLACboard 165limited role · 16% snaps	18-32	36%	50
123	Keenan AllenWRINDboard 98	18-32	36%	50
124	Kayshon BoutteWRHOUboard 287	15-27	36%	42
125	Justin HerbertQBLACboard 102	29-53	35%	82
126	TreVeyon HendersonRBNEboard 128	30-55	35%	85
127	Elic AyomanorWRTENboard 138	18-33	35%	51
128	Wan'Dale RobinsonWRTENboard 55	18-33	35%	51
129	Bo NixQBDENboard 112	31-57	35%	88
130	Stefon DiggsWRWASboard 62	19-35	35%	54
131	Jordan AddisonWRMINboard 110	15-28	35%	43
132	Tez JohnsonWRTBboard 140	8-15	35%	23
133	DeVonta SmithWRPHIboard 37	17-32	35%	49
134	Evan EngramTEDENboard 168	17-32	35%	49
135	Josh DownsWRINDboard 127	17-32	35%	49
136	Jayden ReedWRGBboard 277	9-17	35%	26
137	Malik DavisRBDALboard 273limited role · 16% snaps	9-17	35%	26
138	Shedeur SandersQBCLEboard 254	14-27	34%	41
139	Tetairoa McMillanWRCARboard 31	18-35	34%	53
140	Sean TuckerRBTBboard 195limited role · 15% snaps	19-37	34%	56
141	Cam WardQBTENboard 188	29-57	34%	86
142	Sam DarnoldQBSEAboard 111	29-58	33%	87
143	Breece HallRBNYJboard 39	27-54	33%	81
144	Chuba HubbardRBCARboard 23	25-50	33%	75
145	Oronde GadsdenTELACboard 199	14-28	33%	42
146	Brenton StrangeTEJAXboard 87	13-26	33%	39
147	George HolaniRBSEAboard 216limited role · 12% snaps	5-10	33%	15
148	Rachaad WhiteRBWASboard 44	28-57	33%	85
149	Aaron RodgersQBPITboard 145	26-54	33%	80
150	Mike GesickiTECINboard 146	13-27	33%	40

How this is built: we hold the median closing line across sportsbooks for every 2025 NFL player prop we captured (rushing, receiving and passing markets, full game), and grade each against the player's real stat line. Pushes count for nobody. Fantasy pts lines are the books' own fantasy-points market, graded against full-PPR scoring (book scoring varies slightly; no book posts a separate half-PPR line). Players list only with 8+ graded lines. Only lines held at kickoff are graded: a game with no pregame close for a market shows no mark for it. Past cover rate describes how the books priced a player; it does not predict a future result.