Vs the line: who beat the books in 2026
Every 2026 closing player prop line so far, graded against the real box score after each final. This is a receipt of how the books have priced each player this season, not a prediction of the next over.
Updated Sep 18, 2026 at 7:10 AM ET
Beat the books mostAmon-Ra St. Brown5-1 · 83%
Books winning so farJameson Williams1-6 · 14%
Most lines gradedJahmyr Gibbs7-3 · 70%| # | Player | Record | Cover rate | Lines |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Amon-Ra St. BrownWRDETboard 185 | 5-1 | 83% | 6 |
| 2 |  Dalton KincaidTEBUFboard 214 | 5-1 | 83% | 6 |
| 3 |  Sam LaPortaTEDETboard 197 | 5-1 | 83% | 6 |
| 4 | Jahmyr GibbsRBDETboard 188 | 7-3 | 70% | 10 |
| 5 |  Josh AllenQBBUFboard 189 | 7-3 | 70% | 10 |
| 6 |  Jared GoffQBDETboard 199 | 6-4 | 60% | 10 |
| 7 |  DJ MooreWRBUFboard 187 | 3-3 | 50% | 6 |
| 8 |  James CookRBBUFboard 183 | 4-6 | 40% | 10 |
| 9 |  Khalil ShakirWRBUFboard 206 | 2-4 | 33% | 6 |
| 10 | Jameson WilliamsWRDETboard 213 | 1-6 | 14% | 7 |
How this is built: we hold the median closing line across sportsbooks for every 2026 NFL player prop we captured (rushing, receiving and passing markets, full game), and grade each against the player's real stat line. Pushes count for nobody. Fantasy pts lines are the books' own fantasy-points market, graded against full-PPR scoring (book scoring varies slightly; no book posts a separate half-PPR line). Players list only with 6+ graded lines (the floor rises three lines a week to eight; lines are added after every final). Only lines held at kickoff are graded: a game with no pregame close for a market shows no mark for it. Past cover rate describes how the books priced a player; it does not predict a future result.