Week of September 7 – September 13, 2026
129 wins, 132 losses, 5 ties on 266 picks — a −2.44% return at one unit a bet. Best and worst calls included.
The week in one line
129-132-5 on 266 graded plays, −6.48u at flat 1u stakes, −2.44% ROI, +3.40% average CLV.
The numbers
- Week
- September 7, 2026 – September 13, 2026 (ET)
- Record (wins–losses–ties)
- 129-132-5
- Graded picks
- 266
- Units won or lost
- −6.48u
- Return on money staked (ROI)
- −2.44%
- Average price move our way (CLV)
- +3.40%
- Best call
- Over +134 (matchbook) — Villarreal @ Borussia Dortmund (+1.34u)
- Worst call
- Botic Van de Zandschulp +133 (novig) — Botic Van de Zandschulp @ Arthur Gea (−1.00u)
- Biggest price move
- Alexander Zverev, sgo:9nhzujzgcz4dfti5gcil — +9.0pp fire→close
What we make of it
Down 6.48u on 266 graded plays, −2.44% ROI. Losing weeks get posted with the same wording as winning ones — that's the whole point of grading in public. Average closing-line value came in at +3.40%. CLV is the number we actually steer by, because it stabilises long before win rate does. Biggest line move: Alexander Zverev (sgo:9nhzujzgcz4dfti5gcil) moved +9.0 points of implied probability from our fire price to the close.
How to check us
Every number above comes from the same fired-picks ledger the track-record page reads: each pick captured at the moment it published, graded at the price we recommended, no backfill and no re-pricing. The card at the top of this post is generated from that ledger too.