Darren Waller or Terrance Ferguson: who to draft first

What the sportsbooks price

The player markets price Darren Waller at 5.6 PPR points a game, built from 3 markets across 14 books. That is the 163rd highest figure of the 182 players the books price.

The player markets price Terrance Ferguson at 5.1 PPR points a game, built from 3 markets across 14 books. That is the 166th highest figure of the 182 players the books price.

Where the draft room stands

Drafters have formed no consensus on Darren Waller: he carries no ADP, and the board ranks him 145th overall on the rest of his evidence.

Drafters have formed no consensus on Terrance Ferguson: he carries no ADP, and the board ranks him 146th overall on the rest of his evidence.

This season through Week 1

Through Week 1, Darren Waller has been on the field for 35 percent of CAR snaps, drawn 6 percent of the targets and had 0 percent of the red zone chances.

He has taken 0 of the offence's 5 third down targets, had 0 of its 3 chances inside the five and seen 1 of its 3 two minute targets.

His 2 targets have averaged 4.0 air yards.

In Week 1 against CHI he caught 2 of 2 targets for 28 yards and did not score.

Through Week 1, Terrance Ferguson has been on the field for 51 percent of LAR snaps, drawn 4 percent of the targets and had 0 percent of the red zone chances.

He has taken 0 of the offence's 7 third down targets, had 0 of its 4 chances inside the five and seen 0 of its 2 two minute targets.

His 1 target have averaged 24.0 air yards.

In Week 1 against SF he caught 0 of 1 target for 0 yards and did not score.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025 Darren Waller played 9 games and scored 88.7 PPR points, 9.9 a game, finishing TE33.

He caught 24 of 34 targets for 283 yards and 6 touchdowns, with 7 red zone targets.

That came to 3.8 targets a game, a 71 percent catch rate and 11.8 yards a catch.

He was on the field for 45 percent of the snaps in the games he played.

In 2025 Terrance Ferguson played 14 games and scored 52.1 PPR points, 3.7 a game, finishing TE52.

He caught 11 of 25 targets for 231 yards and 3 touchdowns, with 3 red zone targets.

That came to 1.8 targets a game, a 44 percent catch rate and 21.0 yards a catch.

He was on the field for 39 percent of the snaps in the games he played.

Terrance Ferguson was available for 5 games more.

Head to head

In 2025 Darren Waller scored 9.9 PPR points a game and Terrance Ferguson 3.7, 6.1 a game between them.

Darren Waller finished TE33 that year and Terrance Ferguson TE52.

Darren Waller had 9 more targets than Terrance Ferguson, 34 to 25.

Darren Waller had 52 more receiving yards than Terrance Ferguson, 283 to 231.

This season Terrance Ferguson holds the bigger snap share, 51 percent against 35 percent.

This season Darren Waller holds the bigger target share, 6 percent against 4 percent.

Byes and availability

Darren Waller is off in Week 5 and Terrance Ferguson in Week 11, so either can cover the other's bye.

What would change the answer

0.5 points a game is the entire case. The books restate it every week, and a line that moves moves the order with it.

The draft market is the half that is missing: when the consensus sample holds these two again it can order them differently from the price, and this page will follow the sample rather than the books when it does.