Start Aaron Jones Sr. or Alvin Kamara? Week 4
Locked at kickoff. Graded after.
Start Aaron Jones Sr. over Alvin Kamara
Wrong: 16.8 to 22.8
- Market projected
- 14.7
- pre-game
- Scored
- 16.8
- PPR pts
- Market projected
- 12.6
- pre-game
- Snap share
- 38%
- Week 4
- Target share
- 15%
- Week 4
- Scored
- 22.8
- PPR pts
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Our Week 4 call
Start Aaron Jones Sr. over Alvin Kamara in Week 4.
Market-based projections have Aaron Jones Sr. at 14.7 points and Alvin Kamara at 12.6, a gap of 2.1.
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What the market projects
Player markets imply 14.7 fantasy points for Aaron Jones Sr., with 90 percent of the markets a RB needs posted.
The market has Aaron Jones Sr. at 67.5 rushing yards, with a 57% chance to score a touchdown (12 and 14 market sources).
Player markets imply 12.6 fantasy points for Alvin Kamara, with 100 percent of the markets a RB needs posted.
The market has Alvin Kamara at 40.5 rushing yards, 16.5 receiving yards and 3.5 receptions, with a 45% chance to score a touchdown (12, 13, 9 and 13 market sources).
That puts Aaron Jones Sr. 2.1 points ahead of Alvin Kamara on the market projections.
Injury status
Aaron Jones Sr. was not on the injury report when the call was made.
Alvin Kamara was not on the injury report when the call was made.
Usage before Week 4
Through Week 3, Alvin Kamara played 31 percent of NO snaps, took 33 percent of the carries, drew 10 percent of the targets and had 14 percent of the red zone chances.
Alvin Kamara, Week 2 against BAL: 20 of 68 snaps, 9 carries for 15 yards, 6 targets and 5 catches for 7 yards.
Alvin Kamara, Week 3 against LV: 24 of 74 snaps, 9 carries for 36 yards, 1 target and 1 catch for 5 yards.
Their 2025 seasons
In 2025, Alvin Kamara played 11 games for NO and scored 100.7 PPR points, 9.2 a game, finishing RB46.
He ran 131 times for 471 yards and 1 touchdown, and caught 33 of 39 targets for 186 yards.
He was on the field for 63 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.
How Week 4 went
Aaron Jones Sr. scored 16.8 PPR points and Alvin Kamara scored 22.8.
The call was wrong: Alvin Kamara outscored Aaron Jones Sr. by 6.0.
Aaron Jones Sr. finished 2.1 points above the 14.7 the market projected.
Alvin Kamara finished 10.2 points above the 12.6 the market projected.
Alvin Kamara, Week 4 against ATL: 28 of 74 snaps, 7 carries for 23 yards, 7 targets and 5 catches for 35 yards, 2 touchdowns, 22.8 PPR points.
Alvin Kamara finished as the week's RB9 in PPR scoring.
Their other Week 4 calls
On the draft board
Ranked ahead
RB9 · MIN · bye 6
2026 vs carries line 4-0
- Overall rank
- 14
- Draft pick
- no consensus
- Tier
- 4
Ranked behind
RB · NO · bye unlisted
2025 vs rush yds line 2-9
- Overall rank
- not on the board
- Draft pick
- no consensus
- Tier
- not tiered
The board cards are draft figures, not the week's call. This call locked at kickoff and was not edited after. It is on the public record, wrong ones included.
The gap between them
- Spots apart on the boardone of them is not on the board
- Pick differencenot comparable without a consensus on both
- Tiersnot tiered
- Board size219 draftable players
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