Polymarket
predictionPolymarket — no link
Polymarket vs Kalshi
Honest, sharpness-first comparison. Numbers come from our own coverage data and public sportsbook documentation — and they never change which book wins on a given line in our EV ranking.
Kalshi
predictionKalshi — no link
| Metric | Polymarket | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|
| Sharpness (1–5) | 4 / 5 | 4 / 5 |
| Typical 2-way width Lower is sharper. | 4¢ | 6¢ |
| Leagues covered | 15 | 12 |
| Payout / limits | On-chain settlement (USDC). No KYC for non-US. | CFTC-regulated event contracts. ACH funding. |
| Geo availability | Geo-blocked in the US (as of 2024). | Available in all 50 US states. |
Polymarket
- True consensus pricing
- On-chain transparency
- Deep elections / news markets
- US-blocked
- Crypto onboarding friction
- Thin sports liquidity
Kalshi
- CFTC-regulated
- Available in CA/TX/etc.
- Sports event contracts expanding
- Lower liquidity than Polymarket on news
- Limited prop coverage
Sharps' bottom line
Sharpness is similar, but Polymarket covers more leagues — usually the better single-book pick. Either way, you'll find better prices by comparing both against the rest of the market.
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