Brian Thomas Jr. or Luther Burden III: who should I start in Week 3?

What the sportsbooks price

The player markets price Brian Thomas Jr. at 8.9 PPR points a game, built from 4 markets across 15 books. That is the 109th highest figure of the 186 players the books price.

The player markets price Luther Burden III at 8.0 PPR points a game, built from 3 markets across 15 books. That is the 126th highest figure of the 186 players the books price.

Where the draft room stands

Drafters have formed no consensus on Brian Thomas Jr.: he carries no ADP, and the board ranks him 97th overall on the rest of his evidence.

In 2QB drafts he goes at ADP 92.

Drafters have formed no consensus on Luther Burden III: he carries no ADP, and the board ranks him 117th overall on the rest of his evidence.

In 2QB drafts he goes at ADP 79.

This season through Week 2

Through Week 2, Brian Thomas Jr. has been on the field for 45 percent of JAX snaps, drawn 22 percent of the targets and had 0 percent of the red zone chances.

He has taken 2 of the offence's 9 third down targets, had 0 of its 5 chances inside the five and seen 2 of its 6 two minute targets.

His 11 targets have averaged 11.5 air yards.

In Week 1 against CLE he caught 3 of 3 targets for 40 yards and did not score.

In Week 2 against DEN he caught 3 of 8 targets for 40 yards and did not score.

Through Week 2, Luther Burden III has been on the field for 65 percent of CHI snaps, drawn 21 percent of the targets and had 8 percent of the red zone chances.

He has taken 3 of the offence's 17 third down targets, had 0 of its 6 chances inside the five and seen 5 of its 13 two minute targets.

His 12 targets have averaged 10.3 air yards.

In Week 1 against CAR he carried 1 time for 2 yards, caught 5 of 5 targets for 63 yards and did not score.

In Week 2 against MIN he caught 3 of 7 targets for 32 yards and did not score.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025 Brian Thomas Jr. played 14 games and scored 138.8 PPR points, 9.9 a game, finishing WR42.

He caught 48 of 91 targets for 707 yards and 2 touchdowns, with 6 red zone targets.

That came to 6.5 targets a game, a 53 percent catch rate and 14.7 yards a catch.

He was on the field for 79 percent of the snaps in the games he played.

In 2025 Luther Burden III played 15 games and scored 127.9 PPR points, 8.5 a game, finishing WR48.

He caught 47 of 60 targets for 652 yards and 2 touchdowns, with 4 red zone targets.

That came to 4.0 targets a game, a 78 percent catch rate and 13.9 yards a catch.

He was on the field for 39 percent of the snaps in the games he played.

Luther Burden III was available for 1 game more.

Head to head

In 2025 Brian Thomas Jr. scored 9.9 PPR points a game and Luther Burden III 8.5, 1.4 a game between them.

Brian Thomas Jr. finished WR42 that year and Luther Burden III WR48.

Brian Thomas Jr. had 31 more targets than Luther Burden III, 91 to 60.

Brian Thomas Jr. had 55 more receiving yards than Luther Burden III, 707 to 652.

This season Luther Burden III holds the bigger snap share, 65 percent against 45 percent.

This season Brian Thomas Jr. holds the bigger target share, 22 percent against 21 percent.

Byes and availability

Brian Thomas Jr. is off in Week 7 and Luther Burden III in Week 10, so either can cover the other's bye.

What would change the answer

0.9 points a game is the entire case. The books restate it every week, and a line that moves moves the order with it.

The draft market is the half that is missing: when the consensus sample holds these two again it can order them differently from the price, and this page will follow the sample rather than the books when it does.