Josh Downs or Luther Burden III: who should I start in Week 5?

What the player markets price

The player markets price Josh Downs at 12.3 PPR points a game, built from 4 markets across 17 market sources. That is the 67th highest figure of the 220 players the market prices.

The player markets price Luther Burden III at 11.3 PPR points a game, built from 4 markets across 16 market sources. That is the 77th highest figure of the 220 players the market prices.

Where the draft room stands

Drafters have formed no consensus on Josh Downs: he carries no ADP, and the board ranks him 49th overall on the rest of his evidence.

Drafters have formed no consensus on Luther Burden III: he carries no ADP, and the board ranks him 59th overall on the rest of his evidence.

In 2QB drafts he goes at ADP 39.

This season through Week 4

Through Week 4, Josh Downs has been on the field for 79 percent of IND snaps, drawn 23 percent of the targets and had 11 percent of the red zone chances.

He has taken 11 of the offence's 30 third down targets, had 0 of its 9 chances inside the five and seen 2 of its 16 two minute targets.

His 28 targets have averaged 10.0 air yards.

In Week 2 against KC he caught 7 of 9 targets for 72 yards and did not score.

In Week 3 against HOU he caught 5 of 11 targets for 77 yards and did not score.

In Week 4 against WAS he caught 3 of 4 targets for 16 yards and did not score.

Through Week 4, Luther Burden III has been on the field for 61 percent of CHI snaps, drawn 24 percent of the targets and had 11 percent of the red zone chances.

He has taken 5 of the offence's 33 third down targets, had 1 of its 21 chances inside the five and seen 6 of its 21 two minute targets.

His 29 targets have averaged 8.2 air yards.

In Week 2 against MIN he caught 3 of 7 targets for 32 yards and did not score.

In Week 3 against PHI he carried 1 time for 7 yards, caught 7 of 11 targets for 61 yards and scored 1 touchdown.

In Week 4 against NYJ he carried 1 time for 11 yards, caught 4 of 6 targets for 63 yards and did not score.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025 Josh Downs played 16 games and scored 136.4 PPR points, 8.5 a game, finishing WR44.

He caught 58 of 88 targets for 566 yards and 4 touchdowns, with 14 red zone targets.

That came to 5.5 targets a game, a 66 percent catch rate and 9.8 yards a catch.

He was on the field for 58 percent of the snaps in the games he played.

In 2025 Luther Burden III played 15 games and scored 127.9 PPR points, 8.5 a game, finishing WR48.

He caught 47 of 60 targets for 652 yards and 2 touchdowns, with 4 red zone targets.

That came to 4.0 targets a game, a 78 percent catch rate and 13.9 yards a catch.

He was on the field for 39 percent of the snaps in the games he played.

Josh Downs was available for 1 game more.

Head to head

In 2025 they scored the same 8.5 PPR points a game.

Josh Downs finished WR44 that year and Luther Burden III WR48.

Josh Downs had 28 more targets than Luther Burden III, 88 to 60.

Luther Burden III had 86 more receiving yards than Josh Downs, 652 to 566.

This season Josh Downs holds the bigger snap share, 79 percent against 61 percent.

This season Luther Burden III holds the bigger target share, 24 percent against 23 percent.

Byes and availability

Josh Downs is off in Week 13 and Luther Burden III in Week 10, so either can cover the other's bye.

What would change the answer

1.0 points a game is the entire case. The market restates it every week, and a line that moves moves the order with it.

The draft market is the half that is missing: when the consensus sample holds these two again it can order them differently from the price, and this page will follow the sample rather than the market price when it does.