Start Josh Downs or Luther Burden III? Week 5
Locks at kickoff, graded after.
Start Josh Downs over Luther Burden III
- Market projects
- 12.3
- fantasy pts
- Snap share
- 79%
- Through Week 4
- Target share
- 23%
- Through Week 4
- Market projects
- 11.3
- fantasy pts
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Our Week 5 call
Start Josh Downs over Luther Burden III in Week 5.
Market-based projections have Josh Downs at 12.3 points and Luther Burden III at 11.3, a gap of 1.0. That is inside the noise of a single catch, so treat it as close to a coin flip.
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What the market projects
Player markets imply 12.3 fantasy points for Josh Downs, with 100 percent of the markets a WR needs posted.
The market has Josh Downs at 56.5 receiving yards and 4.5 receptions, with a 29% chance to score a touchdown (16, 13 and 17 market sources).
Player markets imply 11.3 fantasy points for Luther Burden III, with 100 percent of the markets a WR needs posted.
The market has Luther Burden III at 47.5 receiving yards and 4.5 receptions, with a 30% chance to score a touchdown (16, 14 and 16 market sources).
That puts Josh Downs 1.0 points ahead of Luther Burden III on the market projections.
Injury status
Josh Downs is not on the injury report.
Luther Burden III is not on the injury report.
Usage before Week 5
Through Week 4, Josh Downs played 79 percent of IND snaps, drew 23 percent of the targets, earned 36 percent of the air yards and had 11 percent of the red zone chances.
Josh Downs, Week 1 against BAL: 48 of 54 snaps, 4 targets and 2 catches for 37 yards.
Josh Downs, Week 2 against KC: 54 of 65 snaps, 9 targets and 7 catches for 72 yards.
Josh Downs, Week 3 against HOU: 48 of 71 snaps, 11 targets and 5 catches for 77 yards.
Josh Downs, Week 4 against WAS: 51 of 66 snaps, 4 targets and 3 catches for 16 yards.
Their 2025 seasons
In 2025, Josh Downs played 16 games for IND and scored 136.4 PPR points, 8.5 a game, finishing WR44.
He caught 58 of 88 targets for 566 yards and 4 touchdowns, with 14 red zone targets and 422 air yards.
He was on the field for 58 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.
Their other Week 5 calls
On the draft board
Ranked ahead
WR23 · IND · bye 13
2026 vs anytime td line 0-4
- Overall rank
- 49
- Draft pick
- no consensus
- Tier
- 12
Ranked behind
WR25 · CHI · bye 10
2026 vs anytime td line 1-3
- Overall rank
- 59
- Draft pick
- no consensus
- Tier
- 14
The board cards are draft figures, not the week's call. Locks at kickoff, graded after. When the start/sit engine grades week 5, the call and the result appear on the public record, wrong ones included.
The gap between them
- Spots apart on the board10
- Pick differencenot comparable without a consensus on both
- Tierstier 12 and tier 14
- Board size280 draftable players
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