Jimmy Butler vs Joel Embiid: who to draft in 2026-27
Draft Joel Embiid in points leagues (44.5 fantasy points a game to 37.4) and Jimmy Butler in 9-cat leagues (20th against 22nd). The two go close together on our board, which is our own ranking order from 2025-26 box scores, not ADP.
- Points leagues
- #42
- 37.4 FP/G, slot 4.06, $22
- 9-cat leagues
- #20
- +2.9 z, slot 2.08, $31
Out (Knee)
The pick in 9-cat leagues.
- Points leagues
- #11
- 44.5 FP/G, slot 1.11, $33
- 9-cat leagues
- #22
- +2.5 z, slot 2.10, $29
Day to day (Rest)
The pick in points leagues.
The call
Points leagues: draft Joel Embiid. 44.5 fantasy points per game against 37.4, 11th on our board to 42nd.
9-cat leagues: Jimmy Butler instead, +2.9 in summed z-scores against +2.5 (20th to 22nd), because the categories pay for a different mix.
Category by category, Jimmy Butler is ahead in 4 (AST, STL, FG% and TO) and Joel Embiid in 4 (PTS, REB, BLK and 3PM).
Per 36 minutes, Joel Embiid produces more: 50.6 fantasy points to 43.2, on 31.6 minutes a night against 31.1. He already plays as much or more, so the gap is not a role waiting to grow.
Jimmy Butler plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Joel Embiid 4. For that week alone, start Joel Embiid: 177.9 projected fantasy points to 0.0 for Jimmy Butler.
Slots are where our board's order lands in a 12-team snake draft (round.pick), and dollars are auction value over replacement for 12 teams with $200 each. Neither is ADP: no free draft-position feed lets us republish it.
Per game, side by side
| Per game | Jimmy Butler | Joel Embiid |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points per game | 37.4 | 44.5 |
| Minutes | 31.1 | 31.6 |
| PointsPTS | 20.0 | 26.9 |
| ReboundsREB | 5.6 | 7.7 |
| AssistsAST | 4.9 | 3.9 |
| StealsSTL | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| BlocksBLK | 0.2 | 1.2 |
| Threes3PM | 0.8 | 1.4 |
| Field goal %FG% | 51.9% | 48.9% |
| Free throw %FT% | 86.4% | 85.4% |
| TurnoversTO | 1.6 | 2.9 |
| Games, 2025-26 | 38 | 38 |
Bold is the better number. The line blends 2025-26 with 2026-27 games as they are played, the same numbers the rankings use.
Per 36 minutes
| Per 36 | Jimmy Butler | Joel Embiid |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points | 43.2 | 50.6 |
| Points | 23.1 | 30.6 |
| Rebounds | 6.4 | 8.8 |
| Assists | 5.6 | 4.5 |
| Steals | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| Blocks | 0.2 | 1.4 |
| Threes | 1.0 | 1.6 |
| Turnovers | 1.8 | 3.3 |
Each per-game number divided by minutes and scaled to 36: the rate a bigger role would carry.
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9-category z-scores
| Category | Jimmy Butler | Joel Embiid |
|---|---|---|
| PointsPTS | +0.6 | +1.8 |
| ReboundsREB | -0.1 | +0.8 |
| AssistsAST | +0.6 | +0.1 |
| StealsSTL | +1.2 | -1.3 |
| BlocksBLK | -1.0 | +1.1 |
| Threes3PM | -0.8 | -0.3 |
| Field goal percentageFG% | +0.6 | +0.1 |
| Free throw percentageFT% | +1.5 | +1.5 |
| TurnoversTO | +0.4 | -1.3 |
| Total | +2.9 | +2.5 |
Each number is standard deviations above or below the top 156 players (a 12-team league's rosters). Field goal and free throw percentage are weighted by attempts, and turnovers count against.
If you punt a category
Punting assists, steals, field goal percentage and turnovers flips the 9-cat answer to Joel Embiid.
| Punt | Jimmy Butler | Joel Embiid |
|---|---|---|
| PTS | +2.3 (#13) | +0.7 (#38) |
| REB | +2.9 (#18) | +1.6 (#28) |
| AST | +2.3 (#20) | +2.3 (#19) |
| STL | +1.7 (#26) | +3.8 (#11) |
| BLK | +3.8 (#12) | +1.4 (#34) |
| 3PM | +3.6 (#9) | +2.6 (#17) |
| FG% | +2.2 (#29) | +2.5 (#24) |
| FT% | +1.3 (#34) | +0.9 (#41) |
| TO | +2.5 (#26) | +3.8 (#17) |
Value is the sum of the other eight z-scores, recomputed with the punted category left out of the pool that sets them; the rank is among all 406 ranked players.
Week 1 (Oct 19-25)
- Jimmy Butler: 3 games (Wed @LAL, Fri MEM, Sat @PHX), 1 back-to-back, listed Out.
- Joel Embiid: 4 games (Tue @NYK, Thu CLE, Sat MIL, Sun DET), 1 back-to-back, listed DTD.
Recent games
- Jimmy Butler: 38.2 fantasy points a game over his last 10 of 2025-26, against 37.4 on the board.
- Joel Embiid: 48.0 fantasy points a game over his last 10 of 2025-26, against 44.5 on the board.
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Other picks at the same spot
NBA fantasy rankings · Draft cheat sheet · Sleepers
Common questions
Should I draft Jimmy Butler or Joel Embiid in 2026-27?
Points leagues: draft Joel Embiid. 44.5 fantasy points per game against 37.4, 11th on our board to 42nd. 9-cat leagues: Jimmy Butler instead, +2.9 in summed z-scores against +2.5 (20th to 22nd), because the categories pay for a different mix.
Who wins more categories, Jimmy Butler or Joel Embiid?
Category by category, Jimmy Butler is ahead in 4 (AST, STL, FG% and TO) and Joel Embiid in 4 (PTS, REB, BLK and 3PM).
Who should I start in Week 1, Jimmy Butler or Joel Embiid?
Jimmy Butler plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Joel Embiid 4. For that week alone, start Joel Embiid: 177.9 projected fantasy points to 0.0 for Jimmy Butler.
By the Parlae deskBoard updated Oct 13, 2026 at 5:20 PM ETHow this is builtReport a wrong number