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Fantasy basketball busts 2026-27

Of the top 72 players on the board, 9 carry two or more measurable risk flags, and 4 carry three or more. Every flag below is a fact with its number.

  1. Joel Embiid
    CPHIDTD

    #11

    1.11 · 44.5 FP/G

    • Missed timePlayed 38 games in 2025-26 (19 in 2024-25, 39 in 2023-24)
    • Age32 on opening night
  2. Anthony Davis
    CWAS

    #13

    2.01 · 44.0 FP/G

    • Missed timePlayed 20 games in 2025-26 (51 in 2024-25, 75 in 2023-24)
    • Age33 on opening night
  3. Lauri Markkanen
    PFUTAGTD

    #23

    2.11 · 41.2 FP/G

    • Missed timePlayed 42 games in 2025-26 (47 in 2024-25, 55 in 2023-24)
    • Injured nowListed GTD (neck) on the latest injury report
    • Career-best jump41.2 FP/G in 2025-26, up 37% on 30.1 in 2024-25
  4. Kevin Porter
    PGMIL

    #30

    3.06 · 39.9 FP/G

    • Missed timePlayed 38 games in 2025-26 (75 in 2024-25, none in 2023-24)
    • Career-best jump39.9 FP/G in 2025-26, up 83% on 21.8 in 2024-25
  5. Stephen Curry
    PGGSW

    #33

    3.09 · 39.7 FP/G

    • Missed timePlayed 43 games in 2025-26 (70 in 2024-25, 74 in 2023-24)
    • Age38 on opening night
  6. Michael Porter
    SFBKNGTD

    #35

    3.11 · 38.8 FP/G

    • Missed timePlayed 52 games in 2025-26 (77 in 2024-25, 80 in 2023-24)
    • Injured nowListed GTD (wrist) on the latest injury report
    • Career-best jump38.8 FP/G in 2025-26, up 22% on 31.9 in 2024-25
  7. Jimmy Butler
    SFGSWOUT

    #42

    4.06 · 37.4 FP/G

    • Missed timePlayed 38 games in 2025-26 (55 in 2024-25, 59 in 2023-24)
    • Age37 on opening night
    • Injured nowListed OUT (knee) on the latest injury report
  8. Paul George
    SFBOS

    #60

    5.12 · 33.7 FP/G

    • Missed timePlayed 37 games in 2025-26 (41 in 2024-25, 74 in 2023-24)
    • Age36 on opening night
  9. Jusuf Nurkić
    CUTAOUT

    #62

    6.02 · 33.5 FP/G

    • Missed timePlayed 41 games in 2025-26 (51 in 2024-25, 75 in 2023-24)
    • Age32 on opening night
    • Injured nowListed OUT (foot) on the latest injury report
    • Career-best jump33.5 FP/G in 2025-26, up 39% on 24.1 in 2024-25

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One flag in the first three rounds

Top-36 players with a single flag. One flag is not a reason to pass; it is the thing to check before you spend a first, second or third-round pick.

  1. Giannis Antetokounmpo
    PFMIADTD

    #5

    1.05 · 49.1 FP/G

    • Missed timePlayed 36 games in 2025-26 (67 in 2024-25, 73 in 2023-24)
  2. Kawhi Leonard
    SFTORDTD

    #9

    1.09 · 45.7 FP/G

    • Age35 on opening night
  3. James Harden
    PGCLE

    #18

    2.06 · 42.4 FP/G

    • Age37 on opening night
  4. Kevin Durant
    SFHOUDTD

    #20

    2.08 · 41.6 FP/G

    • Age38 on opening night
  5. Josh Giddey
    PGCHI

    #21

    2.09 · 41.6 FP/G

    • Missed timePlayed 54 games in 2025-26 (70 in 2024-25, 79 in 2023-24)
  6. LeBron James
    PFPHIDTD

    #22

    2.10 · 41.4 FP/G

    • Age41 on opening night
  7. Pascal Siakam
    PFIND

    #28

    3.04 · 39.9 FP/G

    • Age32 on opening night
  8. Austin Reaves
    SGLAL

    #36

    3.12 · 38.7 FP/G

    • Missed timePlayed 51 games in 2025-26 (73 in 2024-25, 81 in 2023-24)

How to use the flags

The board ranks every player per game, which assumes he plays. Games missed are the most common way an early pick fails a fantasy team, so a short season last year is the heaviest flag, and age makes the next one more likely. A career-best jump is a softer flag: some of those seasons are a real new role, some were a hot shooting year. None of this is a prediction that a player will bust; it is the list of what has to go right for him to be worth his rank.

For the other side of the draft, see the sleepers, the printable cheat sheet and the NBA injury report.

Common questions

  • What puts a player on the busts list?

    He ranks inside the top 72 (the first six rounds of a 12-team draft) and carries at least 2 of four flags: fewer than 55 games in 2025-26; age 32 or older on opening night; a current injury designation (rest days do not count); or, at 26 or older, a 2025-26 that beat his 2024-25 fantasy points per game by 20 percent or more.

  • Does a bust flag mean I should not draft him?

    No. It means his rank already assumes a full, healthy season at last year's level, and the flags are the reasons that might not happen. Drafting him at his rank pays for the upside and takes the risk; waiting a round shifts the balance.

  • Why are ranks per game rather than season totals?

    A per-game rank tells you what a player is worth on the nights he plays. Missed games are the main way a high pick fails, which is exactly what the games flag adds back in.

By the Parlae deskBoard updated Oct 12, 2026 at 9:13 AM ETHow this is builtReport a wrong number