Start Chris Olave or Aaron Jones Sr.? Week 4
Locked at kickoff. Graded after.
Start Aaron Jones Sr. over Chris Olave
Wrong: 16.8 to 19.6
- Market projected
- 16.8
- pre-game
- Scored
- 16.8
- PPR pts
- Market projected
- 17.9
- pre-game
- ATL D vs WR
- 38.4
- 5th most to WRs (2026)
- Snap share
- 86%
- Week 4
- Target share
- 26%
- Week 4
- Scored
- 19.6
- PPR pts
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Our Week 4 call
Start Aaron Jones Sr. over Chris Olave in Week 4.
Market-based projections have Aaron Jones Sr. at 16.8 points and Chris Olave at 17.9, a gap of 1.1. That is inside the noise of a single catch, so treat it as close to a coin flip. Chris Olave's number is scaled up from a partial market: not every stat the position needs is posted yet, so the rest is estimated from what is. Market coverage on Aaron Jones Sr. is 60 percent of what his position needs, so the market side of this carries proportionally less weight.
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What the market projects
Player markets imply 17.9 fantasy points for Chris Olave, with 70 percent of the markets a WR needs posted.
Player markets imply 16.8 fantasy points for Aaron Jones Sr., with 60 percent of the markets a WR needs posted.
The market gives Aaron Jones Sr. a 54% chance to score a touchdown (8 market sources).
That puts Chris Olave 1.1 points ahead of Aaron Jones Sr. on the market projections.
Week 4 matchups
Chris Olave and NO host ATL on Monday at 8:15 PM ET.
ATL allowed 38.4 fantasy points a game to WRs this season over 4 games, the 5th most in the league.
Receivers caught passes for 195 yards and 0.8 touchdowns a game against ATL.
Injury status
Chris Olave was not on the injury report when the call was made.
Aaron Jones Sr. was not on the injury report when the call was made.
Usage before Week 4
Through Week 3, Chris Olave played 84 percent of NO snaps, drew 29 percent of the targets, earned 47 percent of the air yards and had 12 percent of the red zone chances.
Chris Olave, Week 1 against DET: 77 of 90 snaps, 13 targets and 10 catches for 182 yards.
Chris Olave, Week 2 against BAL: 57 of 68 snaps, 10 targets and 8 catches for 86 yards, 1 touchdown.
Chris Olave, Week 3 against LV: 62 of 74 snaps, 13 targets and 9 catches for 107 yards.
Their 2025 seasons
In 2025, Chris Olave played 16 games for NO and scored 269.0 PPR points, 16.8 a game, finishing WR6.
He caught 100 of 156 targets for 1163 yards and 9 touchdowns, with 13 red zone targets and 874 air yards.
He was on the field for 84 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.
How Week 4 went
Aaron Jones Sr. scored 16.8 PPR points and Chris Olave scored 19.6.
The call was wrong: Chris Olave outscored Aaron Jones Sr. by 2.8.
Aaron Jones Sr. finished 0.0 points above the 16.8 the market projected.
Chris Olave finished 1.7 points above the 17.9 the market projected.
Chris Olave, Week 4 against ATL: 64 of 74 snaps, 12 targets and 8 catches for 116 yards, 19.6 PPR points.
Chris Olave finished as the week's WR12 in PPR scoring.
Their other Week 4 calls
On the draft board
Ranked ahead
WR6 · NO · bye 8
2026 vs anytime td line 1-3
- Overall rank
- 15
- Draft pick
- no consensus
- Tier
- 4
Ranked behind
RB11 · MIN · bye 6
2026 vs carries line 4-0
- Overall rank
- 20
- Draft pick
- no consensus
- Tier
- 5
The board cards are draft figures, not the week's call. This call locked at kickoff and was not edited after. It is on the public record, wrong ones included.
The gap between them
- Spots apart on the board5
- Pick differencenot comparable without a consensus on both
- Tierstier 4 and tier 5
- Board size219 draftable players
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