Start Aaron Jones Sr. or Courtland Sutton? Week 4
Locked at kickoff. Graded after.
Start Aaron Jones Sr. over Courtland Sutton
Right: 16.8 to 1.4
- Market projected
- 9.5
- pre-game
- Scored
- 16.8
- PPR pts
- Market projected
- 9.4
- pre-game
- Snap share
- 74%
- Week 4
- Target share
- 16%
- Week 4
- Scored
- 1.4
- PPR pts
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Our Week 4 call
Start Aaron Jones Sr. over Courtland Sutton in Week 4.
Market-based projections have Aaron Jones Sr. at 9.5 points and Courtland Sutton at 9.4, a gap of 0.1. That is inside the noise of a single catch, so treat it as close to a coin flip.
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What the market projects
Player markets imply 9.5 fantasy points for Aaron Jones Sr., with 100 percent of the markets a WR needs posted.
The market gives Aaron Jones Sr. a 54% chance to score a touchdown (7 market sources).
Player markets imply 9.4 fantasy points for Courtland Sutton, with 100 percent of the markets a WR needs posted.
The market has Courtland Sutton at 38.5 receiving yards and 3.5 receptions, with a 29% chance to score a touchdown (15, 11 and 12 market sources).
That puts Aaron Jones Sr. 0.1 points ahead of Courtland Sutton on the market projections.
Injury status
Aaron Jones Sr. was not on the injury report when the call was made.
Courtland Sutton was not on the injury report when the call was made.
Usage before Week 4
Through Week 3, Courtland Sutton played 79 percent of DEN snaps, drew 18 percent of the targets, earned 28 percent of the air yards and had 18 percent of the red zone chances.
Courtland Sutton, Week 1 against KC: 39 of 51 snaps, 5 targets and 2 catches for 11 yards.
Courtland Sutton, Week 2 against JAX: 45 of 62 snaps, 4 targets and 3 catches for 25 yards.
Courtland Sutton, Week 3 against LAR: 58 of 67 snaps, 7 targets and 3 catches for 46 yards.
Their 2025 seasons
In 2025, Courtland Sutton played 17 games for DEN and scored 219.7 PPR points, 12.9 a game, finishing WR13.
He caught 74 of 124 targets for 1017 yards and 7 touchdowns, with 17 red zone targets and 795 air yards.
He was on the field for 86 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.
How Week 4 went
Aaron Jones Sr. scored 16.8 PPR points and Courtland Sutton scored 1.4.
The call was right: Aaron Jones Sr. outscored Courtland Sutton by 15.4.
Aaron Jones Sr. finished 7.3 points above the 9.5 the market projected.
Courtland Sutton finished 8.0 points below the 9.4 the market projected.
Courtland Sutton, Week 4 against SF: 48 of 65 snaps, 6 targets and 1 catch for 4 yards, 1.4 PPR points.
Courtland Sutton finished as the week's WR101 in PPR scoring.
Their other Week 4 calls
On the draft board
Ranked ahead
RB9 · MIN · bye 6
2026 vs carries line 4-0
- Overall rank
- 17
- Draft pick
- no consensus
- Tier
- 4
Ranked behind
WR31 · DEN · bye 10
2026 vs anytime td line 0-4
- Overall rank
- 76
- Draft pick
- no consensus
- Tier
- 15
The board cards are draft figures, not the week's call. This call locked at kickoff and was not edited after. It is on the public record, wrong ones included.
The gap between them
- Spots apart on the board59
- Pick differencenot comparable without a consensus on both
- Tierstier 4 and tier 15
- Board size221 draftable players
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