Start Carnell Tate or Brian Thomas Jr.? Week 1
Locks at kickoff, graded after.
Start Carnell Tate over Brian Thomas Jr.
Right: 7.8 to 7.0
- Books imply
- 5.3
- fantasy pts
- NYJ D vs WR
- 24.4
- 11th fewest to WRs (2026)
- Snap share
- 88%
- Week 1
- Target share
- 21%
- Week 1
- Scored
- 7.8
- PPR pts
- CLE D vs WR
- 48.5
- 3rd most to WRs (2026)
- Scored
- 7.0
- PPR pts
Our Week 1 call
Start Carnell Tate over Brian Thomas Jr. in Week 1.
Carnell Tate is priced by the books at 5.3 projected points. Brian Thomas Jr. has no player market posted for this week, so his side of this call rests on consensus ADP and the news wire only. Drafters take Carnell Tate at ADP 75 and Brian Thomas Jr. at 81. Market coverage on Carnell Tate is 70 percent of what his position needs, so the market side of this carries proportionally less weight.
What the books imply
Player prop markets imply 5.3 fantasy points for Carnell Tate, with 70 percent of the markets a WR needs posted.
No sportsbook posted a player market for Brian Thomas Jr. in Week 1.
Week 1 matchups
Carnell Tate and TEN host NYJ on Sunday at 1:00 PM ET.
NYJ allowed 24.4 fantasy points to WRs in its one game this season, the 11th fewest in the league.
Receivers caught passes for 94 yards and a touchdown against NYJ.
Brian Thomas Jr. and JAX host CLE.
CLE allowed 48.5 fantasy points to WRs in its one game this season, the 3rd most in the league.
Receivers caught passes for 183 yards and 3 touchdowns against CLE.
By points allowed to the position, Brian Thomas Jr. has the softer matchup.
Injury status
Carnell Tate was not on the injury report when the call was made.
Brian Thomas Jr. was not on the injury report when the call was made.
Their 2025 seasons
In 2025, Brian Thomas Jr. played 14 games for JAX and scored 138.8 PPR points, 9.9 a game, finishing WR42.
He caught 48 of 91 targets for 707 yards and 2 touchdowns, with 6 red zone targets and 548 air yards.
He was on the field for 79 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.
Brian Thomas Jr., Week 18 of 2025 against TEN: 5 targets and 3 catches for 49 yards, 7.9 PPR points.
Brian Thomas Jr., Week 17 of 2025 against IND: 54 of 69 snaps, 7 targets and 4 catches for 39 yards, 7.9 PPR points.
Brian Thomas Jr., Week 16 of 2025 against DEN: 51 of 70 snaps, 3 targets and 2 catches for 18 yards, 3.8 PPR points.
How Week 1 went
Carnell Tate scored 7.8 PPR points and Brian Thomas Jr. scored 7.0.
The call was right: Carnell Tate outscored Brian Thomas Jr. by 0.8.
Carnell Tate finished 2.5 points above the 5.3 the props implied.
Carnell Tate, Week 1 against NYJ: 44 of 50 snaps, 6 targets and 4 catches for 38 yards, 7.8 PPR points.
Carnell Tate finished as the week's WR52 in PPR scoring.
Brian Thomas Jr., Week 1 against CLE: 20 of 57 snaps, 3 targets and 3 catches for 40 yards, 7.0 PPR points.
Brian Thomas Jr. finished as the week's WR58 in PPR scoring.
Their other Week 1 calls
On the draft board
Ranked ahead
WR22 · TEN · bye 9
- Overall rank
- 85
- Draft pick
- no consensus
- Tier
- 5
Ranked behind
WR28 · JAX · bye 7
2025 vs rec yds line 4-10
- Overall rank
- 95
- Draft pick
- no consensus
- Tier
- 5
The board cards are draft figures, not the week's call. Locks at kickoff, graded after. When the start/sit engine grades week 1, the call and the result appear on the public record, wrong ones included.
The gap between them
- Spots apart on the board10
- Pick differencenot comparable without a consensus on both
- Tiersboth in tier 5
- Board size244 draftable players
Drafting soon? Use the free live draft assistant
It reranks the board after every pick and shows who is falling past ADP at your slot. No sign in, nothing to install.
Open the draft assistant