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Start Christian McCaffrey or James Cook III? Week 1

Locks at kickoff, graded after.

Start Christian McCaffrey over James Cook III

Right: 13.8 to 9.9
Start

Christian McCaffrey

RB · SF · at LAR

Books imply
6.0
fantasy pts
LAR D vs RB
21.8
14th fewest to RBs (2026)
Snap share
55%
Week 1
Target share
24%
Week 1
Scored
13.8
PPR pts
Sit

James Cook III

RB · BUF · at HOU

Books imply
1.4
fantasy pts
HOU D vs RB
10.5
4th fewest to RBs (2026)
Snap share
72%
Week 1
Target share
14%
Week 1
Scored
9.9
PPR pts

Our Week 1 call

Start Christian McCaffrey over James Cook III in Week 1.

De-vigged player props project Christian McCaffrey at 6.0 points and James Cook III at 1.4, a gap of 4.5. Drafters take Christian McCaffrey at ADP 5 and James Cook III at 12. Market coverage on Christian McCaffrey is 40 percent of what his position needs, so the market side of this carries proportionally less weight.

What the books imply

Player prop markets imply 6.0 fantasy points for Christian McCaffrey, with 40 percent of the markets a RB needs posted.

Player prop markets imply 1.5 fantasy points for James Cook III, with 40 percent of the markets a RB needs posted.

That puts Christian McCaffrey 4.5 points ahead of James Cook III on the books.

Week 1 matchups

Christian McCaffrey and SF visit LAR on Thursday at 8:35 PM ET.

LAR allowed 21.8 fantasy points to RBs in its one game this season, the 14th fewest in the league.

Running backs ran for 133 yards and no touchdowns against LAR and caught passes for 25 more yards.

James Cook III and BUF visit HOU on Sunday at 1:00 PM ET.

HOU allowed 10.5 fantasy points to RBs in its one game this season, the 4th fewest in the league.

Running backs ran for 63 yards and no touchdowns against HOU and caught passes for 12 more yards.

By points allowed to the position, Christian McCaffrey has the softer matchup.

Injury status

Christian McCaffrey was not on the injury report when the call was made.

James Cook III was not on the injury report when the call was made.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025, Christian McCaffrey played 17 games for SF and scored 416.6 PPR points, 24.5 a game, finishing RB1.

He ran 311 times for 1202 yards and 10 touchdowns, and caught 102 of 129 targets for 924 yards.

He was on the field for 83 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Christian McCaffrey, Week 18 of 2025 against SEA: 36 of 42 snaps, 8 carries for 23 yards, 7 targets and 6 catches for 34 yards, 11.7 PPR points.

Christian McCaffrey, Week 17 of 2025 against CHI: 61 of 72 snaps, 23 carries for 140 yards, 6 targets and 4 catches for 41 yards, 1 touchdown, 28.1 PPR points.

Christian McCaffrey, Week 16 of 2025 against IND: 53 of 66 snaps, 21 carries for 117 yards, 8 targets and 6 catches for 29 yards, 2 touchdowns, 32.6 PPR points.

In 2025, James Cook III played 17 games for BUF and scored 302.2 PPR points, 17.8 a game, finishing RB6.

He ran 309 times for 1621 yards and 12 touchdowns, and caught 33 of 40 targets for 291 yards.

He was on the field for 60 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

James Cook III, Week 18 of 2025 against NYJ: 2 carries for 15 yards, 0 targets and 0 catches for 0 yards, 1.5 PPR points.

James Cook III, Week 17 of 2025 against PHI: 39 of 76 snaps, 20 carries for 74 yards, 4 targets and 1 catch for 3 yards, 8.7 PPR points.

James Cook III, Week 16 of 2025 against CLE: 28 of 50 snaps, 16 carries for 117 yards, 2 targets and 1 catch for 17 yards, 2 touchdowns, 26.4 PPR points.

How Week 1 went

Christian McCaffrey scored 13.8 PPR points and James Cook III scored 9.9.

The call was right: Christian McCaffrey outscored James Cook III by 3.9.

Christian McCaffrey finished 7.9 points above the 6.0 the props implied.

Christian McCaffrey, Week 1 against LAR: 36 of 65 snaps, 10 carries for 68 yards, 8 targets and 5 catches for 20 yards, 13.8 PPR points.

Christian McCaffrey finished as the week's RB19 in PPR scoring.

James Cook III finished 8.5 points above the 1.5 the props implied.

James Cook III, Week 1 against HOU: 42 of 58 snaps, 13 carries for 57 yards, 4 targets and 3 catches for 12 yards, 9.9 PPR points.

James Cook III finished as the week's RB27 in PPR scoring.

Their other Week 1 calls

On the draft board

Ranked ahead

RB8 · SF · bye 8

2025 vs rush yds line 6-11

Overall rank
19
Draft pick
no consensus
Tier
4

Ranked behind

RB49 · BUF · bye 7

2025 vs anytime td line 9-8

Overall rank
183
Draft pick
no consensus
Tier
10

The board cards are draft figures, not the week's call. Locks at kickoff, graded after. When the start/sit engine grades week 1, the call and the result appear on the public record, wrong ones included.

The gap between them

  • Spots apart on the board164
  • Pick differencenot comparable without a consensus on both
  • Tierstier 4 and tier 10
  • Board size244 draftable players

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