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Start Mike Evans or Courtland Sutton? Week 1

Locks at kickoff, graded after.

Start Mike Evans over Courtland Sutton

Right: 16.9 to 3.1
Start

Mike Evans

WR · SF · at LAR

Books imply
5.0
fantasy pts
LAR D vs WR
47.9
4th most to WRs (2026)
Snap share
75%
Week 1
Target share
21%
Week 1
Scored
16.9
PPR pts
Sit

Courtland Sutton

WR · DEN · at KC

KC D vs WR
13.0
2nd fewest to WRs (2026)
Snap share
76%
Week 1
Target share
19%
Week 1
Scored
3.1
PPR pts

Our Week 1 call

Start Mike Evans over Courtland Sutton in Week 1.

Mike Evans is priced by the books at 5.0 projected points. Courtland Sutton has no player market posted for this week, so his side of this call rests on consensus ADP and the news wire only. Drafters take Mike Evans at ADP 59 and Courtland Sutton at 62. Market coverage on Mike Evans is 40 percent of what his position needs, so the market side of this carries proportionally less weight.

What the books imply

Player prop markets imply 5.0 fantasy points for Mike Evans, with 40 percent of the markets a WR needs posted.

No sportsbook posted a player market for Courtland Sutton in Week 1.

Week 1 matchups

Mike Evans and SF visit LAR on Thursday at 8:35 PM ET.

LAR allowed 47.9 fantasy points to WRs in its one game this season, the 4th most in the league.

Receivers caught passes for 147 yards and 3 touchdowns against LAR.

Courtland Sutton and DEN visit KC.

KC allowed 13.0 fantasy points to WRs in its one game this season, the 2nd fewest in the league.

Receivers caught passes for 55 yards and no touchdowns against KC.

By points allowed to the position, Mike Evans has the softer matchup.

Injury status

Mike Evans was not on the injury report when the call was made.

Courtland Sutton was not on the injury report when the call was made.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025, Mike Evans played 8 games for TB and scored 84.8 PPR points, 10.6 a game, finishing WR76.

He caught 30 of 61 targets for 368 yards and 3 touchdowns, with 8 red zone targets and 331 air yards.

He was on the field for 65 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Mike Evans, Week 18 of 2025 against CAR: 50 of 67 snaps, 2 targets and 2 catches for 34 yards, 5.4 PPR points.

Mike Evans, Week 17 of 2025 against MIA: 50 of 67 snaps, 7 targets and 3 catches for 31 yards, 1 touchdown, 12.1 PPR points.

Mike Evans, Week 16 of 2025 against CAR: 42 of 64 snaps, 9 targets and 5 catches for 31 yards, 1 touchdown, 14.1 PPR points.

In 2025, Courtland Sutton played 17 games for DEN and scored 219.7 PPR points, 12.9 a game, finishing WR13.

He caught 74 of 124 targets for 1017 yards and 7 touchdowns, with 17 red zone targets and 795 air yards.

He was on the field for 86 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Courtland Sutton, Week 18 of 2025 against LAC: 2 targets and 1 catch for 5 yards, 1.5 PPR points.

Courtland Sutton, Week 17 of 2025 against KC: 59 of 72 snaps, 10 targets and 4 catches for 40 yards, 8.0 PPR points.

Courtland Sutton, Week 16 of 2025 against JAX: 62 of 66 snaps, 12 targets and 6 catches for 86 yards, 1 touchdown, 20.6 PPR points.

How Week 1 went

Mike Evans scored 16.9 PPR points and Courtland Sutton scored 3.1.

The call was right: Mike Evans outscored Courtland Sutton by 13.8.

Mike Evans finished 11.9 points above the 5.0 the props implied.

Mike Evans, Week 1 against LAR: 49 of 65 snaps, 7 targets and 6 catches for 49 yards, 1 touchdown, 16.9 PPR points.

Mike Evans finished as the week's WR14 in PPR scoring.

Courtland Sutton, Week 1 against KC: 39 of 51 snaps, 5 targets and 2 catches for 11 yards, 3.1 PPR points.

Courtland Sutton finished as the week's WR89 in PPR scoring.

Their other Week 1 calls

On the draft board

Ranked ahead

WR2 · SF · bye 8

2025 vs rec yds line 2-6

Overall rank
7
Draft pick
ADP 7
Tier
2

Ranked behind

WR37 · DEN · bye 10

2025 vs rec yds line 10-7

Overall rank
106
Draft pick
no consensus
Tier
5

The board cards are draft figures, not the week's call. Locks at kickoff, graded after. When the start/sit engine grades week 1, the call and the result appear on the public record, wrong ones included.

The gap between them

  • Spots apart on the board99
  • Pick differencenot comparable without a consensus on both
  • Tierstier 2 and tier 5
  • Board size244 draftable players

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