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Start Josh Downs or Denzel Boston? Week 3

Locks at kickoff, graded after.

Start Josh Downs over Denzel Boston

Start

Josh Downs

WR

Books imply
11.4
fantasy pts
Snap share
86%
Through Week 2
Target share
22%
Through Week 2
Books imply
11.1
fantasy pts
Snap share
93%
Through Week 2
Target share
21%
Through Week 2

Our Week 3 call

Start Josh Downs over Denzel Boston in Week 3.

De-vigged player props project Josh Downs at 11.4 points and Denzel Boston at 11.1, a gap of 0.3. That is inside the noise of a single catch, so treat it as close to a coin flip. Denzel Boston's number is scaled up from a partial market: the books have not posted every stat the position needs, so the rest is estimated from what they have.

What the books imply

Player prop markets imply 11.4 fantasy points for Josh Downs, with 100 percent of the markets a WR needs posted.

The books have Josh Downs at 50.5 receiving yards and 4.5 receptions, with a 26% chance to score a touchdown (15, 11 and 15 books).

Player prop markets imply 11.1 fantasy points for Denzel Boston, with 100 percent of the markets a WR needs posted.

The books have Denzel Boston at 48.5 receiving yards and 3.5 receptions, with a 31% chance to score a touchdown (13, 10 and 15 books).

That puts Josh Downs 0.3 points ahead of Denzel Boston on the books.

Injury status

Josh Downs is not on the injury report.

Denzel Boston is not on the injury report.

Usage before Week 3

Through Week 2, Josh Downs played 86 percent of IND snaps, drew 22 percent of the targets, earned 30 percent of the air yards and had 11 percent of the red zone chances.

Josh Downs, Week 1 against BAL: 48 of 54 snaps, 4 targets and 2 catches for 37 yards.

Josh Downs, Week 2 against KC: 54 of 65 snaps, 9 targets and 7 catches for 72 yards.

Through Week 2, Denzel Boston played 93 percent of CLE snaps, drew 21 percent of the targets, earned 52 percent of the air yards and had 20 percent of the red zone chances.

Denzel Boston, Week 1 against JAX: 47 of 51 snaps, 4 targets and 2 catches for 59 yards, 1 touchdown.

Denzel Boston, Week 2 against TB: 54 of 58 snaps, 7 targets and 5 catches for 95 yards, 1 touchdown.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025, Josh Downs played 16 games for IND and scored 136.4 PPR points, 8.5 a game, finishing WR44.

He caught 58 of 88 targets for 566 yards and 4 touchdowns, with 14 red zone targets and 422 air yards.

He was on the field for 58 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Josh Downs, Week 18 of 2025 against HOU: 1 carry for -5 yards, 4 targets and 4 catches for 61 yards, 9.6 PPR points.

Their other Week 3 calls

On the draft board

Ranked ahead

WR24 · IND · bye 13

2025 vs anytime td line 4-12

Overall rank
58
Draft pick
no consensus
Tier
11

Ranked behind

WR31 · CLE · bye 11

Overall rank
72
Draft pick
no consensus
Tier
11

The board cards are draft figures, not the week's call. Locks at kickoff, graded after. When the start/sit engine grades week 3, the call and the result appear on the public record, wrong ones included.

The gap between them

  • Spots apart on the board14
  • Pick differencenot comparable without a consensus on both
  • Tiersboth in tier 11
  • Board size230 draftable players

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Week 3 on the board

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