Start Michael Penix Jr. or Justin Herbert? Week 5
Locks at kickoff, graded after.
Start Michael Penix Jr. over Justin Herbert
- Market projects
- 12.2
- fantasy pts
- Market projects
- 12.0
- fantasy pts
- DEN D vs QB
- 18.1
- 12th most to QBs (2026)
- Snap share
- 100%
- Through Week 4
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Our Week 5 call
Start Michael Penix Jr. over Justin Herbert in Week 5.
Market-based projections have Michael Penix Jr. at 12.2 points and Justin Herbert at 12.0, a gap of 0.2. That is inside the noise of a single catch, so treat it as close to a coin flip.
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What the market projects
Player markets imply 12.2 fantasy points for Michael Penix Jr., with 100 percent of the markets a QB needs posted.
The market has Michael Penix Jr. at 221.5 passing yards and 0.5 rushing yards, with a 8% chance to score a touchdown (11, 8 and 14 market sources).
Player markets imply 12.0 fantasy points for Justin Herbert, with 100 percent of the markets a QB needs posted.
The market has Justin Herbert at 199.5 passing yards, 0.5 passing touchdowns and 24.5 rushing yards, with a 16% chance to score a touchdown (11, 16, 14 and 14 market sources).
That puts Michael Penix Jr. 0.2 points ahead of Justin Herbert on the market projections.
Week 5 matchups
Justin Herbert and LAC host DEN on Sunday at 4:05 PM ET.
DEN allowed 18.1 fantasy points a game to QBs this season over 4 games, the 12th most in the league.
Quarterbacks threw for 245 yards and 1.5 touchdowns a game against DEN, with an interception.
Injury status
Michael Penix Jr. is not on the injury report.
Justin Herbert is not on the injury report.
Usage before Week 5
Through Week 4, Justin Herbert played 100 percent of LAC snaps, dropped back 144 times and threw an average of 8.8 air yards per attempt.
Justin Herbert, Week 1 against ARI: 55 of 55 snaps, 17 of 27 passes for 209 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception, 5 carries for 29 yards.
Justin Herbert, Week 2 against LV: 68 of 68 snaps, 15 of 27 passes for 192 yards, 1 touchdown and 2 interceptions, 3 carries for 2 yards.
Justin Herbert, Week 3 against BUF: 69 of 69 snaps, 20 of 34 passes for 226 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception, 4 carries for 17 yards.
Justin Herbert, Week 4 against SEA: 71 of 71 snaps, 19 of 31 passes for 189 yards, 1 touchdown and 2 interceptions, 6 carries for 40 yards.
Their 2025 seasons
In 2025, Justin Herbert played 16 games for LAC and scored 299.9 PPR points, 18.7 a game, finishing QB10.
He completed 340 of 512 passes for 3727 yards, 26 touchdowns and 13 interceptions, and ran 83 times for 498 yards and 2 touchdowns.
He was on the field for 97 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.
Their other Week 5 calls
On the draft board
Ranked ahead
QB29 · ATL · bye 11
2025 vs pass yds line 4-5
- Overall rank
- 160
- Draft pick
- no consensus
- Tier
- 11
Ranked behind
QB30 · LAC · bye 7
2026 vs pass yds line 1-3
- Overall rank
- 164
- Draft pick
- no consensus
- Tier
- 11
The board cards are draft figures, not the week's call. Locks at kickoff, graded after. When the start/sit engine grades week 5, the call and the result appear on the public record, wrong ones included.
The gap between them
- Spots apart on the board4
- Pick differencenot comparable without a consensus on both
- Tiersboth in tier 11
- Board size255 draftable players
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