How Kalshi Works
Kalshi prices outcomes in cents and settles them in dollars. Once that one idea clicks, the rest of the exchange — pricing, payouts, combos — follows from it.
What Kalshi is
Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated federal exchange with a real order book. Each market has a YES contract and a NO contract, priced anywhere from 1¢ to 99¢. Each contract settles at $1 if its side is correct and $0 if it isn't, so the price behaves like an implied probability: 62¢ implies roughly a 62% chance. Your counterparty is another trader, not a house setting a line.
How payouts work
Worked example: you buy 10 YES contracts at 62¢. Cost is 10 × $0.62 = $6.20. If the event happens, the position settles at 10 × $1.00 = $10.00, a profit of $3.80. If it doesn't, the position settles at $0 and you lose the $6.20. Break-even is exactly the price you paid — 62¢ needs the outcome to hit more than 62% of the time.
How combos work
A combo is Kalshi's version of a parlay: several legs bundled into a single contract that only pays if every leg resolves your way. Worked example: two legs priced at 60¢ and 50¢ imply 60% × 50% = 30%, so the combo prices around 30¢. Buy 10 combo contracts at 30¢ for $3.00; if both legs hit, they settle at $10.00 for a $7.00 profit, and if either leg misses, the whole combo settles at $0.
How it differs from a sportsbook
A sportsbook posts a price with vig baked in and is your counterparty. On Kalshi you trade against the order book, pay exchange fees instead of vig, can sell a position before settlement to lock in or cut a loss, and see the same depth everyone else does. Prices are quoted in cents rather than American odds, which makes the implied probability obvious instead of something you have to convert.
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FAQ
How do Kalshi payouts work?
Every contract settles at $1 if your side is correct and $0 if it isn't. Your profit per contract is $1 minus the price you paid, so a contract bought at 62¢ returns 38¢ of profit on a win and loses the 62¢ on a loss.
How do Kalshi combos work?
A combo bundles several legs into one position, similar in spirit to a parlay. All legs must resolve your way for the combo to settle at $1, so the combo price is roughly the product of the individual leg probabilities, adjusted by the order book.
Is Kalshi gambling?
Kalshi is a federally regulated exchange offering event contracts, which are financial instruments under CFTC oversight rather than sportsbook wagers. That said, contracts can settle worthless, so treat position sizing as seriously as you would any risk-taking activity.
What happens when my contract settles?
At settlement Kalshi resolves the market against its official source. Winning contracts pay $1 each into your cash balance, losing contracts pay $0, and the position closes automatically — you don't need to sell first.