Carnell Tate or Brian Thomas Jr.: who should I start?

What the sportsbooks price

The player markets price Carnell Tate at 9.2 PPR points a game, built from 4 markets across 17 books. That is the 104th highest figure of the 183 players the books price.

The player markets price Brian Thomas Jr. at 7.5 PPR points a game, built from 3 markets across 16 books. That is the 140th highest figure of the 183 players the books price.

Where the draft room stands

Drafters have formed no consensus on Carnell Tate: he carries no ADP, and the board ranks him 90th overall on the rest of his evidence.

In 2QB drafts he goes at ADP 95.

Drafters have formed no consensus on Brian Thomas Jr.: he carries no ADP, and the board ranks him 118th overall on the rest of his evidence.

In 2QB drafts he goes at ADP 91.

This season through Week 1

Through Week 1, Carnell Tate has been on the field for 88 percent of TEN snaps, drawn 21 percent of the targets and had 0 percent of the red zone chances.

He has taken 1 of the offence's 8 third down targets and seen 1 of its 2 two minute targets.

His 6 targets have averaged 11.2 air yards.

In Week 1 against NYJ he caught 4 of 6 targets for 38 yards and did not score.

Through Week 1, Brian Thomas Jr. has been on the field for 35 percent of JAX snaps, drawn 14 percent of the targets and had 0 percent of the red zone chances.

He has taken 0 of the offence's 2 third down targets and had 0 of its 1 chance inside the five.

His 3 targets have averaged 14.7 air yards.

In Week 1 against CLE he caught 3 of 3 targets for 40 yards and did not score.

Their 2025 seasons

Carnell Tate is a rookie, so there is no NFL season behind him to price him against.

In 2025 Brian Thomas Jr. played 14 games and scored 138.8 PPR points, 9.9 a game, finishing WR42.

He caught 48 of 91 targets for 707 yards and 2 touchdowns, with 6 red zone targets.

That came to 6.5 targets a game, a 53 percent catch rate and 14.7 yards a catch.

He was on the field for 79 percent of the snaps in the games he played.

Head to head

This season Carnell Tate holds the bigger snap share, 88 percent against 35 percent.

This season Carnell Tate holds the bigger target share, 21 percent against 14 percent.

Byes and availability

Carnell Tate is off in Week 9 and Brian Thomas Jr. in Week 7, so either can cover the other's bye.

What would change the answer

1.7 points a game is the entire case. The books restate it every week, and a line that moves moves the order with it.

The draft market is the half that is missing: when the consensus sample holds these two again it can order them differently from the price, and this page will follow the sample rather than the books when it does.