Deebo Samuel Sr. or Brian Thomas Jr.: who should I start?

What the sportsbooks price

The player markets price Deebo Samuel Sr. at 9.8 PPR points a game, built from 5 markets across 17 books. That is the 92nd highest figure of the 183 players the books price.

The player markets price Brian Thomas Jr. at 7.5 PPR points a game, built from 3 markets across 16 books. That is the 140th highest figure of the 183 players the books price.

Where the draft room has them

Deebo Samuel Sr. goes at ADP 6, an average pick of 106.8, and the board has him WR30 in tier 9.

His earliest recorded pick is 85 and his latest 121, a standard deviation of 9.3 picks.

He appears in 290 recorded drafts across the formats the consensus sample covers.

Over 14 days drafters have taken Samuel 6.1 picks earlier.

In 2QB drafts he goes at ADP 123.

Drafters have formed no consensus on Brian Thomas Jr.: he carries no ADP, and the board ranks him 118th overall on the rest of his evidence.

In 2QB drafts he goes at ADP 91.

This season through Week 1

Through Week 1, Deebo Samuel Sr. has been on the field for 42 percent of SF snaps, drawn 21 percent of the targets and had 30 percent of the red zone chances.

He has taken 0 of the offence's 10 third down targets, had 1 of its 3 chances inside the five and seen 0 of its 3 two minute targets.

His 7 targets have averaged 2.4 air yards.

In Week 1 against LAR he carried 1 time for 12 yards, caught 6 of 7 targets for 48 yards and scored 1 touchdown.

Through Week 1, Brian Thomas Jr. has been on the field for 35 percent of JAX snaps, drawn 14 percent of the targets and had 0 percent of the red zone chances.

He has taken 0 of the offence's 2 third down targets and had 0 of its 1 chance inside the five.

His 3 targets have averaged 14.7 air yards.

In Week 1 against CLE he caught 3 of 3 targets for 40 yards and did not score.

Their 2025 seasons

The season feed carries no line for Deebo Samuel Sr. in the last completed season.

In 2025 Brian Thomas Jr. played 14 games and scored 138.8 PPR points, 9.9 a game, finishing WR42.

He caught 48 of 91 targets for 707 yards and 2 touchdowns, with 6 red zone targets.

That came to 6.5 targets a game, a 53 percent catch rate and 14.7 yards a catch.

He was on the field for 79 percent of the snaps in the games he played.

Head to head

This season Deebo Samuel Sr. holds the bigger snap share, 42 percent against 35 percent.

This season Deebo Samuel Sr. holds the bigger target share, 21 percent against 14 percent.

Byes and availability

Deebo Samuel Sr. is off in Week 8 and Brian Thomas Jr. in Week 7, so either can cover the other's bye.

What would change the answer

2.3 points a game is the entire case. The books restate it every week, and a line that moves moves the order with it.

The draft market is the half that is missing: when the consensus sample holds these two again it can order them differently from the price, and this page will follow the sample rather than the books when it does.