Josh Allen or Justin Jefferson: who should I start in Week 3?

What the sportsbooks price

The player markets price Josh Allen at 23.5 PPR points a game, built from 5 markets across 17 books. That is the 2nd highest figure of the 186 players the books price.

The player markets price Justin Jefferson at 15.4 PPR points a game, built from 4 markets across 15 books. That is the 41st highest figure of the 186 players the books price.

Where the draft room has them

Josh Allen goes at ADP 2, an average pick of 24.1, and the board has him QB1 in tier 1.

His earliest recorded pick is 2 and his latest 37, a standard deviation of 8.5 picks.

He appears in 529 recorded drafts across the formats the consensus sample covers.

Over 14 days drafters have taken Allen 8.6 picks earlier.

In 2QB drafts he goes at ADP 2.

Drafters have formed no consensus on Justin Jefferson: he carries no ADP, and the board ranks him 26th overall on the rest of his evidence.

By format he goes standard: ADP 4; 2QB: ADP 28.

This season through Week 2

Through Week 2, Josh Allen has been on the field for 100 percent of BUF snaps, dropped back 70 times and thrown 10.3 air yards an attempt.

He has been sacked or hit on 11 of 70 dropbacks and scrambled 6 times.

In Week 1 against HOU he completed 20 of 29 passes for 334 yards, threw 2 touchdowns and 0 interceptions and ran 5 times for 24 yards.

In Week 2 against DET he completed 20 of 31 passes for 248 yards, threw 3 touchdowns and 0 interceptions and ran 11 times for 72 yards.

Through Week 2, Justin Jefferson has been on the field for 96 percent of MIN snaps, drawn 36 percent of the targets and had 21 percent of the red zone chances.

He has taken 7 of the offence's 19 third down targets, had 0 of its 2 chances inside the five and seen 1 of its 3 two minute targets.

His 15 targets have averaged 11.4 air yards.

In Week 1 against GB he caught 8 of 9 targets for 92 yards and scored 2 touchdowns.

In Week 2 against CHI he caught 3 of 6 targets for 55 yards and did not score.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025 Josh Allen played 17 games and scored 374.6 PPR points, 22.0 a game, finishing QB1.

He threw for 3668 yards on 460 attempts with 25 touchdowns and 10 interceptions, and ran for 579 yards and 14 touchdowns.

That came to 27.1 attempts a game at 8.0 yards an attempt.

He was on the field for 98 percent of the snaps in the games he played.

In 2025 Justin Jefferson played 17 games and scored 201.5 PPR points, 11.9 a game, finishing WR21.

He caught 84 of 141 targets for 1048 yards and 2 touchdowns, with 17 red zone targets.

That came to 8.3 targets a game, a 60 percent catch rate and 12.5 yards a catch.

He was on the field for 95 percent of the snaps in the games he played.

Both were available for 17 games that season.

Side by side

In 2025 Josh Allen scored 22.0 PPR points a game and Justin Jefferson 11.9, 10.2 a game between them.

Josh Allen finished QB1 and Justin Jefferson WR21, which are two different ladders.

Josh Allen is a quarterback and Justin Jefferson a wide receiver, so the question is which slot you fill first rather than which of them is better.

Byes and availability

Josh Allen is off in Week 7 and Justin Jefferson in Week 6, so either can cover the other's bye.

What would change the answer

8.1 points a game is the entire case. The books restate it every week, and a line that moves moves the order with it.

The draft market is the half that is missing: when the consensus sample holds these two again it can order them differently from the price, and this page will follow the sample rather than the books when it does.