Should I start Justin Jefferson or Zay Flowers in Week 10?

The market-based projections

Justin Jefferson's market-based projection is 16.5 PPR points a game, built from 3 markets across 14 market sources. That is the 21st highest figure of the 219 players with a market-based projection.

Zay Flowers's market-based projection is 15.7 PPR points a game, built from 5 markets across 13 market sources. That is the 28th highest figure of the 219 players with a market-based projection.

Where the draft room stands

Live drafts hold no current pick on Justin Jefferson, and the board ranks him 10th overall on the rest of his evidence.

By format he goes standard: ADP 4; 2QB: ADP 15.

Live drafts hold no current pick on Zay Flowers, and the board ranks him 14th overall on the rest of his evidence.

This season through Week 9

Through Week 9, Justin Jefferson has been on the field for 82 percent of MIN snaps, drawn 29 percent of the targets and had 19 percent of the red zone chances.

He has taken 21 of the offence's 63 third down targets, had 1 of its 4 chances inside the five and seen 5 of its 18 two minute targets.

His 51 targets have averaged 10.5 air yards.

In Week 7 against IND he caught 4 of 7 targets for 44 yards and did not score.

In Week 8 against DET he caught 5 of 9 targets for 33 yards and scored 1 touchdown.

In Week 9 against BUF he caught 3 of 11 targets for 58 yards and did not score.

Through Week 9, Zay Flowers has been on the field for 67 percent of BAL snaps, drawn 30 percent of the targets and had 11 percent of the red zone chances.

He has taken 17 of the offence's 65 third down targets, had 0 of its 25 chances inside the five and seen 11 of its 40 two minute targets.

His 64 targets have averaged 7.6 air yards.

In Week 7 against CIN he caught 8 of 11 targets for 137 yards and scored 1 touchdown.

In Week 8 against BUF he caught 0 of 5 targets for 0 yards and did not score.

In Week 9 against JAX he carried 3 times for 17 yards, caught 3 of 6 targets for 6 yards and did not score.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025 Justin Jefferson played 17 games and scored 201.5 PPR points, 11.9 a game, finishing WR21.

He caught 84 of 141 targets for 1048 yards and 2 touchdowns, with 17 red zone targets.

That came to 8.3 targets a game, a 60 percent catch rate and 13 yards a catch.

He was on the field for 95 percent of the snaps in the games he played.

In 2025 Zay Flowers played 17 games and scored 243.3 PPR points, 14.3 a game, finishing WR7.

He caught 86 of 118 targets for 1211 yards and 5 touchdowns, with 10 red zone targets.

That came to 6.9 targets a game, a 73 percent catch rate and 14.1 yards a catch.

He was on the field for 86 percent of the snaps in the games he played.

Both were available for 17 games that season.

Head to head

In 2025 Zay Flowers scored 14.3 PPR points a game and Justin Jefferson 11.9, 2.5 a game between them.

Justin Jefferson finished WR21 that year and Zay Flowers WR7.

Justin Jefferson had 23 more targets than Zay Flowers, 141 to 118.

Zay Flowers had 163 more receiving yards than Justin Jefferson, 1211 to 1048.

This season Justin Jefferson holds the bigger snap share, 82 percent against 67 percent.

This season Zay Flowers holds the bigger target share, 30 percent against 29 percent.

Byes and availability

Justin Jefferson is off in Week 6 and Zay Flowers in Week 13, so either can cover the other's bye.

What would change the answer

0.8 points a game is the entire case. The market restates it every week, and a line that moves moves the order with it.

The draft market is the half that is missing: when live drafts hold these two again they can order them differently from the projection, and this page will follow the drafts rather than the market-based projection when they do.