Start em sit em Week 4 calls by position: what the market projects and what the injuries change

The clearest start em sit em calls of Week 4

The books have priced Week 4, and our Week 4 start or sit calls rebuilt from those prices this morning. Most pairs are close. These are not.

Source: the calls and their reasoning, read at 7:42 AM ET. Points are PPR, from de-vigged player props. The rankings refresh on their own clock, so a number there can differ from a call by a few tenths.

Quarterback. Allen is the QB1 on our Week 4 rankings at 22.9, on props of 237.7 passing yards and 31.5 rushing yards with a 53.6 percent chance of a touchdown of his own. Buffalo hosts New England as a 7 point favorite, total 48.5. Ward's number is scaled up from a partial market, which the call says in its own sentence.

Running back. Gibbs is the RB1 on the rankings at 25.3, on 95.5 rushing yards, 4.5 catches and a 72.3 percent touchdown price, the biggest touchdown price on the running back board. Detroit plays at Carolina on Sunday night with a 50.5 total, the second highest of the week.

Wide receiver and tight end. Smith-Njigba is the WR1 at 20.8 on 7.3 catches and 89.5 yards. McBride is the TE1 at 17.7 on the rankings, the same 7.3 catches, which is why he beats most receivers in flex pairs.

Start Darnell Mooney over Roman Wilson is 6.2 to 5.8, and the page says a gap under 1.5 points "is inside the noise of a single catch." St. Brown over Ja'Marr Chase is 18.7 to 18.6; Jared Goff over Dak Prescott is 17.9 to 17.9 after rounding. A call that close is a lean, not an answer.

Calls that turn on injuries

Nico Collins, Texans. Sleeper still lists Collins Out with a hamstring strain, so every pair with him is gated: "Nico Collins is listed out on the injury report, so this is not a close call: start Josh Downs." DeMeco Ryans says Collins is hopeful. The books price him at 14.7, but a prop line is conditional on playing and says nothing about whether he will. The calls rebuild every 30 minutes until kickoff. If his designation improves to Questionable or better, the gate lifts, and on this morning's rankings Collins against Downs is 14.7 to 14.4, inside the noise.

Tampa Bay. Baker Mayfield is out at least three weeks and Jalon Daniels starts (Todd Bowles). Jalen McMillan is likely out six to eight weeks (Rick Stroud, Tampa Bay Times). Only one book has posted Tampa Bay's player lines so far: Bucky Irving 13.0, Emeka Egbuka 9.2, Chris Godwin Jr. 6.9. Green Bay is a 4.5 point favorite there, total 39.5. The calls start Jeremiyah Love over Irving and Egbuka over Hunter Henry, the second one inside the noise.

Giants. New York traded for J.J. McCarthy, but Jim Harbaugh says Jameis Winston stays the starter, and Sleeper lists McCarthy Out, coach's decision. Winston is priced at 15.3. Arizona's Jacoby Brissett, in the same game, is 16.2, so that call is Brissett, by less than a point.

Receivers with no call yet. Justin Jefferson has an ankle sprain with a chance to play (Rapoport). Puka Nacua's status is open; Sean McVay was optimistic on Friday. Mike Evans is day to day with a rib injury that Kyle Shanahan says is not long term. Sleeper lists all three Out today, and the books have posted only touchdown prices for them, so none is ranked or in a pair.

Running back openings. De'Von Achane is out for the season with a torn ACL (Schefter and Rapoport). Breece Hall is week to week (Rapoport and Schefter), and Travis Etienne Jr. will miss time (Kellen Moore). Ollie Gordon, Braelon Allen and Alvin Kamara are not priced for Week 4 yet, apart from a carried Week 3 price on Kamara, so their calls are not on the page. Their Week 3 workloads are on the Week 4 waiver wire.

Thursday, London and the late locks

There are no byes, and four lock points.

• Thursday, 8:15 PM ET: Pittsburgh at Cleveland. Total 38.5, tied for the lowest of the week. Jaylen Warren over Quinshon Judkins, 16.3 to 12.9, locks here. So does Mooney over Wilson, because a call locks at the earlier of its two kickoffs.
• Sunday, 9:30 AM ET: Colts and Commanders in London, at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, Indianapolis by 3.5, total 47.5. Jonathan Taylor, Josh Downs, Tyler Warren and Marcus Mariota lock before any other Sunday game starts.
• Sunday, 8:20 PM ET: Detroit at Carolina. Gibbs, St. Brown, LaPorta and Chuba Hubbard.
• Monday, 8:15 PM ET: Atlanta at New Orleans, total 48.5.

London needs one more note. Every Mariota call on the page, including Start Marcus Mariota over Brissett at 17.4 to 16.2, assumes Mariota is Washington's quarterback. Dan Quinn has Jayden Daniels returning to practice and traveling to London. If Daniels is named the starter, a Mariota call no longer describes the game. Washington's final injury report of the week and the inactive list, 90 minutes before kickoff at 8:00 AM ET, settle it before the pair locks. Keep Thursday and London players out of your flex, which is the only slot that can cover a late scratch at any position (why).

How the calls are made

Each player gets a score from 0 to 100. The market side is his de-vigged prop projection, turned into a percentile within his position, and it carries up to 65 percent of the weight, scaled by how many of his position's markets the books have posted. Consensus ADP carries the rest. Availability is a gate, not a weight: a player listed Out, Doubtful or on injured reserve cannot be the start.

That blend is why a call can start the lower projection. Chase Brown is priced at 18.0 and James Cook III at 16.5, but drafters take Cook at ADP 2 and Brown at 5, so the call is Cook, and the page says the gap is inside the noise. Read the sentence under every call. It prints both numbers and names any weakness in its own inputs. Our guide to reading a start or sit call covers each part.

How the calls are graded

A call locks at the earlier kickoff and is never edited after. It is right when the player we said to start outscores the other in your scoring format, and a tie counts as neither. The Week 4 rankings page prints the season so far as "Parlae start or sit calls this season: 1,128 right of 2,012 graded, 2,817 published. Misses stay up." The record page puts the hit rate on published calls at 56.1%, and notes that 179 of those graded calls were settled by a player who did not take a snap.

What to do with this

1. Set the calls with a real gap first, and treat anything under 1.5 points as your decision.
2. Settle Steelers and Browns players by Thursday night, and London players by 8:00 AM ET Sunday.
3. Recheck the Week 4 calls after Wednesday's injury reports, when Collins, Jefferson, Nacua and Evans may move them.