Al Horford vs Marvin Bagley: who to draft in 2026-27
Draft Al Horford in both formats: 22.4 fantasy points a game to 22.4 in points leagues, and 126th against 182nd in 9-cat. The two go close together on our board, which is our own ranking order from 2025-26 box scores, not ADP.
- Points leagues
- #168
- 22.4 FP/G, slot 14.12
- 9-cat leagues
- #126
- -2.0 z, slot 11.06, $5
Day to day (Rest)
The pick in points and 9-cat leagues.
- Points leagues
- #169
- 22.4 FP/G, slot 15.01
- 9-cat leagues
- #182
- -3.3 z, slot 16.02
The call
Points leagues: draft Al Horford. 22.4 fantasy points per game against 22.4, 168th on our board to 169th.
9-cat leagues: Al Horford again, -2.0 in summed z-scores against -3.3 (126th to 182nd).
Category by category, Al Horford is ahead in 6 (AST, STL, BLK, 3PM, FT% and TO) and Marvin Bagley in 3 (PTS, REB and FG%).
Per 36 minutes, Marvin Bagley produces more: 40.3 fantasy points to 37.5, on 20.0 minutes a night against 21.5. He does it in fewer minutes, so a bigger role would widen the gap.
Al Horford plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Marvin Bagley 2. For that week alone, start Al Horford: 67.3 projected fantasy points to 44.9 for Marvin Bagley.
Slots are where our board's order lands in a 12-team snake draft (round.pick), and dollars are auction value over replacement for 12 teams with $200 each. Neither is ADP: no free draft-position feed lets us republish it.
Per game, side by side
| Per game | Al Horford | Marvin Bagley |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points per game | 22.4 | 22.4 |
| Minutes | 21.5 | 20.0 |
| PointsPTS | 8.3 | 10.4 |
| ReboundsREB | 4.9 | 6.1 |
| AssistsAST | 2.6 | 1.4 |
| StealsSTL | 0.7 | 0.5 |
| BlocksBLK | 1.1 | 0.7 |
| Threes3PM | 1.6 | 0.4 |
| Field goal %FG% | 42.6% | 61.8% |
| Free throw %FT% | 84.6% | 66.0% |
| TurnoversTO | 0.9 | 1.0 |
| Games, 2025-26 | 45 | 60 |
Bold is the better number. The line blends 2025-26 with 2026-27 games as they are played, the same numbers the rankings use.
Per 36 minutes
| Per 36 | Al Horford | Marvin Bagley |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points | 37.5 | 40.3 |
| Points | 13.8 | 18.8 |
| Rebounds | 8.1 | 11.0 |
| Assists | 4.3 | 2.5 |
| Steals | 1.1 | 0.8 |
| Blocks | 1.9 | 1.3 |
| Threes | 2.7 | 0.7 |
| Turnovers | 1.6 | 1.8 |
Each per-game number divided by minutes and scaled to 36: the rate a bigger role would carry.
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9-category z-scores
| Category | Al Horford | Marvin Bagley |
|---|---|---|
| PointsPTS | -1.5 | -1.1 |
| ReboundsREB | -0.4 | +0.1 |
| AssistsAST | -0.5 | -1.1 |
| StealsSTL | -1.0 | -1.6 |
| BlocksBLK | +0.9 | +0.1 |
| Threes3PM | -0.0 | -1.3 |
| Field goal percentageFG% | -0.7 | +1.4 |
| Free throw percentageFT% | +0.1 | -1.0 |
| TurnoversTO | +1.2 | +1.1 |
| Total | -2.0 | -3.3 |
Each number is standard deviations above or below the top 156 players (a 12-team league's rosters). Field goal and free throw percentage are weighted by attempts, and turnovers count against.
If you punt a category
No punt changes the answer: Al Horford stays ahead whichever category you give up.
| Punt | Al Horford | Marvin Bagley |
|---|---|---|
| PTS | -0.5 (#85) | -2.3 (#177) |
| REB | -1.6 (#120) | -3.8 (#241) |
| AST | -1.4 (#122) | -2.2 (#154) |
| STL | -1.0 (#99) | -1.9 (#133) |
| BLK | -3.1 (#174) | -3.7 (#214) |
| 3PM | -1.9 (#134) | -2.0 (#139) |
| FG% | -1.3 (#96) | -5.5 (#273) |
| FT% | -2.0 (#135) | -2.3 (#146) |
| TO | -3.3 (#149) | -4.7 (#197) |
Value is the sum of the other eight z-scores, recomputed with the punted category left out of the pool that sets them; the rank is among all 406 ranked players.
Week 1 (Oct 19-25)
- Al Horford: 3 games (Wed @LAL, Fri MEM, Sat @PHX), 1 back-to-back, listed DTD.
- Marvin Bagley: 2 games (Thu @OKC, Sat NOP).
Recent games
- Al Horford: 25.8 fantasy points a game over his last 10 of 2025-26, against 22.4 on the board.
- Marvin Bagley: 23.7 fantasy points a game over his last 10 of 2025-26, against 22.4 on the board.
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Other picks at the same spot
NBA fantasy rankings · Draft cheat sheet · Sleepers
Common questions
Should I draft Al Horford or Marvin Bagley in 2026-27?
Points leagues: draft Al Horford. 22.4 fantasy points per game against 22.4, 168th on our board to 169th. 9-cat leagues: Al Horford again, -2.0 in summed z-scores against -3.3 (126th to 182nd).
Who wins more categories, Al Horford or Marvin Bagley?
Category by category, Al Horford is ahead in 6 (AST, STL, BLK, 3PM, FT% and TO) and Marvin Bagley in 3 (PTS, REB and FG%).
Who should I start in Week 1, Al Horford or Marvin Bagley?
Al Horford plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Marvin Bagley 2. For that week alone, start Al Horford: 67.3 projected fantasy points to 44.9 for Marvin Bagley.
By the Parlae deskBoard updated Oct 13, 2026 at 5:20 PM ETHow this is builtReport a wrong number