Marvin Bagley vs Obi Toppin: who to draft in 2026-27
Draft Marvin Bagley in both formats: 22.4 fantasy points a game to 20.8 in points leagues, and 182nd against 183rd in 9-cat. The two go close together on our board, which is our own ranking order from 2025-26 box scores, not ADP.
- Points leagues
- #169
- 22.4 FP/G, slot 15.01
- 9-cat leagues
- #182
- -3.3 z, slot 16.02
The pick in points and 9-cat leagues.
- Points leagues
- #197
- 20.8 FP/G, slot 17.05
- 9-cat leagues
- #183
- -3.4 z, slot 16.03
The call
Points leagues: draft Marvin Bagley. 22.4 fantasy points per game against 20.8, 169th on our board to 197th.
9-cat leagues: Marvin Bagley again, -3.3 in summed z-scores against -3.4 (182nd to 183rd).
Category by category, Marvin Bagley is ahead in 4 (REB, BLK, FG% and TO) and Obi Toppin in 5 (PTS, AST, STL, 3PM and FT%).
Per 36 minutes, Obi Toppin produces more: 42.4 fantasy points to 40.3, on 17.7 minutes a night against 20.0. He does it in fewer minutes, so a bigger role would widen the gap.
Marvin Bagley plays 2 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Obi Toppin 3. For that week alone, start Obi Toppin: 62.5 projected fantasy points to 44.9 for Marvin Bagley.
Slots are where our board's order lands in a 12-team snake draft (round.pick), and dollars are auction value over replacement for 12 teams with $200 each. Neither is ADP: no free draft-position feed lets us republish it.
Per game, side by side
| Per game | Marvin Bagley | Obi Toppin |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points per game | 22.4 | 20.8 |
| Minutes | 20.0 | 17.7 |
| PointsPTS | 10.4 | 11.6 |
| ReboundsREB | 6.1 | 4.4 |
| AssistsAST | 1.4 | 2.3 |
| StealsSTL | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| BlocksBLK | 0.7 | 0.0 |
| Threes3PM | 0.4 | 1.5 |
| Field goal %FG% | 61.8% | 50.3% |
| Free throw %FT% | 66.0% | 91.3% |
| TurnoversTO | 1.0 | 1.2 |
| Games, 2025-26 | 60 | 24 |
Bold is the better number. The line blends 2025-26 with 2026-27 games as they are played, the same numbers the rankings use.
Per 36 minutes
| Per 36 | Marvin Bagley | Obi Toppin |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points | 40.3 | 42.4 |
| Points | 18.8 | 23.7 |
| Rebounds | 11.0 | 9.0 |
| Assists | 2.5 | 4.7 |
| Steals | 0.8 | 1.0 |
| Blocks | 1.3 | 0.1 |
| Threes | 0.7 | 3.1 |
| Turnovers | 1.8 | 2.4 |
Each per-game number divided by minutes and scaled to 36: the rate a bigger role would carry.
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9-category z-scores
| Category | Marvin Bagley | Obi Toppin |
|---|---|---|
| PointsPTS | -1.1 | -0.9 |
| ReboundsREB | +0.1 | -0.6 |
| AssistsAST | -1.1 | -0.7 |
| StealsSTL | -1.6 | -1.5 |
| BlocksBLK | +0.1 | -1.3 |
| Threes3PM | -1.3 | -0.1 |
| Field goal percentageFG% | +1.4 | +0.2 |
| Free throw percentageFT% | -1.0 | +0.7 |
| TurnoversTO | +1.1 | +0.9 |
| Total | -3.3 | -3.4 |
Each number is standard deviations above or below the top 156 players (a 12-team league's rosters). Field goal and free throw percentage are weighted by attempts, and turnovers count against.
If you punt a category
Punting rebounds, blocks, field goal percentage and turnovers flips the 9-cat answer to Obi Toppin.
| Punt | Marvin Bagley | Obi Toppin |
|---|---|---|
| PTS | -2.3 (#177) | -2.5 (#189) |
| REB | -3.8 (#241) | -2.7 (#175) |
| AST | -2.2 (#154) | -2.6 (#183) |
| STL | -1.9 (#133) | -1.9 (#136) |
| BLK | -3.7 (#214) | -2.1 (#137) |
| 3PM | -2.0 (#139) | -3.3 (#193) |
| FG% | -5.5 (#273) | -3.6 (#183) |
| FT% | -2.3 (#146) | -4.1 (#219) |
| TO | -4.7 (#197) | -4.4 (#186) |
Value is the sum of the other eight z-scores, recomputed with the punted category left out of the pool that sets them; the rank is among all 406 ranked players.
Week 1 (Oct 19-25)
- Marvin Bagley: 2 games (Thu @OKC, Sat NOP).
- Obi Toppin: 3 games (Wed @NOP, Fri DAL, Sun @BKN).
Recent games
- Marvin Bagley: 23.7 fantasy points a game over his last 10 of 2025-26, against 22.4 on the board.
- Obi Toppin: 25.7 fantasy points a game over his last 10 of 2025-26, against 20.8 on the board.
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Other picks at the same spot
NBA fantasy rankings · Draft cheat sheet · Sleepers
Common questions
Should I draft Marvin Bagley or Obi Toppin in 2026-27?
Points leagues: draft Marvin Bagley. 22.4 fantasy points per game against 20.8, 169th on our board to 197th. 9-cat leagues: Marvin Bagley again, -3.3 in summed z-scores against -3.4 (182nd to 183rd).
Who wins more categories, Marvin Bagley or Obi Toppin?
Category by category, Marvin Bagley is ahead in 4 (REB, BLK, FG% and TO) and Obi Toppin in 5 (PTS, AST, STL, 3PM and FT%).
Who should I start in Week 1, Marvin Bagley or Obi Toppin?
Marvin Bagley plays 2 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Obi Toppin 3. For that week alone, start Obi Toppin: 62.5 projected fantasy points to 44.9 for Marvin Bagley.
By the Parlae deskBoard updated Oct 13, 2026 at 5:20 PM ETHow this is builtReport a wrong number