Deni Avdija vs Matas Buzelis: who to draft in 2026-27
Draft Deni Avdija in points leagues (42.9 fantasy points a game to 30.9) and Matas Buzelis in 9-cat leagues (66th against 67th). The two go close together on our board, which is our own ranking order from 2025-26 box scores, not ADP.
- Points leagues
- #17
- 42.9 FP/G, slot 2.05, $30
- 9-cat leagues
- #67
- -0.4 z, slot 6.07, $13
The pick in points leagues.
- Points leagues
- #78
- 30.9 FP/G, slot 7.06, $12
- 9-cat leagues
- #66
- -0.3 z, slot 6.06, $14
The pick in 9-cat leagues.
The call
Points leagues: draft Deni Avdija. 42.9 fantasy points per game against 30.9, 17th on our board to 78th.
9-cat leagues: Matas Buzelis instead, -0.3 in summed z-scores against -0.4 (66th to 67th), because the categories pay for a different mix.
Category by category, Deni Avdija is ahead in 5 (PTS, REB, AST, STL and FT%) and Matas Buzelis in 4 (BLK, 3PM, FG% and TO).
Per 36 minutes, Deni Avdija produces more: 46.3 fantasy points to 38.1, on 33.3 minutes a night against 29.2. He already plays as much or more, so the gap is not a role waiting to grow.
Deni Avdija plays 2 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Matas Buzelis 3. For that week alone, start Matas Buzelis: 92.8 projected fantasy points to 85.7 for Deni Avdija.
Slots are where our board's order lands in a 12-team snake draft (round.pick), and dollars are auction value over replacement for 12 teams with $200 each. Neither is ADP: no free draft-position feed lets us republish it.
Per game, side by side
| Per game | Deni Avdija | Matas Buzelis |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points per game | 42.9 | 30.9 |
| Minutes | 33.3 | 29.2 |
| PointsPTS | 24.2 | 16.3 |
| ReboundsREB | 6.9 | 5.8 |
| AssistsAST | 6.7 | 2.1 |
| StealsSTL | 0.8 | 0.7 |
| BlocksBLK | 0.6 | 1.5 |
| Threes3PM | 1.9 | 2.2 |
| Field goal %FG% | 46.2% | 46.3% |
| Free throw %FT% | 80.2% | 78.6% |
| TurnoversTO | 3.8 | 2.1 |
| Games, 2025-26 | 66 | 77 |
Bold is the better number. The line blends 2025-26 with 2026-27 games as they are played, the same numbers the rankings use.
Per 36 minutes
| Per 36 | Deni Avdija | Matas Buzelis |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points | 46.3 | 38.1 |
| Points | 26.2 | 20.1 |
| Rebounds | 7.4 | 7.2 |
| Assists | 7.2 | 2.5 |
| Steals | 0.8 | 0.9 |
| Blocks | 0.7 | 1.9 |
| Threes | 2.0 | 2.8 |
| Turnovers | 4.1 | 2.5 |
Each per-game number divided by minutes and scaled to 36: the rate a bigger role would carry.
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9-category z-scores
| Category | Deni Avdija | Matas Buzelis |
|---|---|---|
| PointsPTS | +1.3 | -0.1 |
| ReboundsREB | +0.5 | -0.0 |
| AssistsAST | +1.5 | -0.8 |
| StealsSTL | -0.7 | -0.9 |
| BlocksBLK | -0.1 | +1.7 |
| Threes3PM | +0.2 | +0.6 |
| Field goal percentageFG% | -0.6 | -0.5 |
| Free throw percentageFT% | +0.1 | -0.1 |
| TurnoversTO | -2.5 | -0.3 |
| Total | -0.4 | -0.3 |
Each number is standard deviations above or below the top 156 players (a 12-team league's rosters). Field goal and free throw percentage are weighted by attempts, and turnovers count against.
If you punt a category
Punting blocks, threes and turnovers flips the 9-cat answer to Deni Avdija.
| Punt | Deni Avdija | Matas Buzelis |
|---|---|---|
| PTS | -1.8 (#145) | -0.3 (#74) |
| REB | -1.1 (#95) | -0.4 (#71) |
| AST | -2.0 (#146) | +0.5 (#45) |
| STL | +0.2 (#55) | +0.5 (#45) |
| BLK | -0.4 (#72) | -2.1 (#140) |
| 3PM | -0.7 (#87) | -0.9 (#93) |
| FG% | -0.1 (#66) | +0.1 (#61) |
| FT% | -0.6 (#82) | -0.2 (#67) |
| TO | +2.1 (#35) | -0.1 (#63) |
Value is the sum of the other eight z-scores, recomputed with the punted category left out of the pool that sets them; the rank is among all 406 ranked players.
Week 1 (Oct 19-25)
- Deni Avdija: 2 games (Wed PHX, Fri @SAC).
- Matas Buzelis: 3 games (Wed @TOR, Fri @MIL, Sat WAS), 1 back-to-back.
Recent games
- Deni Avdija: 42.1 fantasy points a game over his last 10 of 2025-26, against 42.9 on the board.
- Matas Buzelis: 33.3 fantasy points a game over his last 10 of 2025-26, against 30.9 on the board.
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Other picks at the same spot
NBA fantasy rankings · Draft cheat sheet · Sleepers
Common questions
Should I draft Deni Avdija or Matas Buzelis in 2026-27?
Points leagues: draft Deni Avdija. 42.9 fantasy points per game against 30.9, 17th on our board to 78th. 9-cat leagues: Matas Buzelis instead, -0.3 in summed z-scores against -0.4 (66th to 67th), because the categories pay for a different mix.
Who wins more categories, Deni Avdija or Matas Buzelis?
Category by category, Deni Avdija is ahead in 5 (PTS, REB, AST, STL and FT%) and Matas Buzelis in 4 (BLK, 3PM, FG% and TO).
Who should I start in Week 1, Deni Avdija or Matas Buzelis?
Deni Avdija plays 2 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Matas Buzelis 3. For that week alone, start Matas Buzelis: 92.8 projected fantasy points to 85.7 for Deni Avdija.
By the Parlae deskBoard updated Oct 13, 2026 at 5:20 PM ETHow this is builtReport a wrong number