Start Aaron Jones Sr. or Jacory Croskey-Merritt? Week 1
Locks at kickoff, graded after.
Start Aaron Jones Sr. over Jacory Croskey-Merritt
Wrong: 10.0 to 12.6- Books imply
- 5.6
- fantasy pts
- GB D vs RB
- 23.0
- 16th fewest to RBs (2026)
- Snap share
- 46%
- Week 1
- Target share
- 4%
- Week 1
- Scored
- 10.0
- PPR pts
- PHI D vs RB
- 18.9
- 13th fewest to RBs (2026)
- Snap share
- 49%
- Week 1
- Target share
- 3%
- Week 1
- Scored
- 12.6
- PPR pts
Our Week 1 call
Start Aaron Jones Sr. over Jacory Croskey-Merritt in Week 1.
Aaron Jones Sr. is priced by the books at 5.6 projected points. Jacory Croskey-Merritt has no player market posted for this week, so his side of this call rests on consensus ADP and the news wire only. Drafters take Aaron Jones Sr. at ADP 111 and Jacory Croskey-Merritt at 119. Market coverage on Aaron Jones Sr. is 60 percent of what his position needs, so the market side of this carries proportionally less weight.
What the books imply
Player prop markets imply 5.6 fantasy points for Aaron Jones Sr., with 60 percent of the markets a RB needs posted.
No sportsbook posted a player market for Jacory Croskey-Merritt in Week 1.
Week 1 matchups
Aaron Jones Sr. and MIN host GB on Sunday at 4:25 PM ET.
GB allowed 23.0 fantasy points to RBs in its one game this season, the 16th fewest in the league.
Running backs ran for 99 yards and 2 touchdowns against GB and caught passes for 1 more yards.
Jacory Croskey-Merritt and WAS visit PHI.
PHI allowed 18.9 fantasy points to RBs in its one game this season, the 13th fewest in the league.
Running backs ran for 101 yards and a touchdown against PHI and caught passes for -2 more yards.
By points allowed to the position, Aaron Jones Sr. has the softer matchup.
Injury status
Aaron Jones Sr. was not on the injury report when the call was made.
Jacory Croskey-Merritt was listed as questionable when the call was made.
Their 2025 seasons
In 2025, Aaron Jones Sr. played 12 games for MIN and scored 118.7 PPR points, 9.9 a game, finishing RB41.
He ran 132 times for 548 yards and 2 touchdowns, and caught 28 of 41 targets for 199 yards.
He was on the field for 55 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.
Aaron Jones Sr., Week 17 of 2025 against DET: 35 of 54 snaps, 18 carries for 53 yards, 4 targets and 3 catches for 10 yards, 1 touchdown, 15.3 PPR points.
Aaron Jones Sr., Week 16 of 2025 against NYG: 39 of 61 snaps, 21 carries for 85 yards, 3 targets and 2 catches for 8 yards, 11.3 PPR points.
Aaron Jones Sr., Week 15 of 2025 against DAL: 32 of 55 snaps, 12 carries for 34 yards, 3 targets and 3 catches for 31 yards, 9.5 PPR points.
In 2025, Jacory Croskey-Merritt played 17 games for WAS and scored 140.3 PPR points, 8.3 a game, finishing RB33.
He ran 175 times for 805 yards and 8 touchdowns, and caught 9 of 13 targets for 68 yards.
He was on the field for 39 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.
Jacory Croskey-Merritt, Week 18 of 2025 against PHI: 13 carries for 29 yards, 0 targets and 0 catches for 0 yards, 2.9 PPR points.
Jacory Croskey-Merritt, Week 17 of 2025 against DAL: 28 of 44 snaps, 11 carries for 105 yards, 0 targets and 0 catches for 0 yards, 2 touchdowns, 22.5 PPR points.
Jacory Croskey-Merritt, Week 16 of 2025 against PHI: 11 of 54 snaps, 8 carries for 25 yards, 0 targets and 0 catches for 0 yards, 1 touchdown, 8.5 PPR points.
How Week 1 went
Aaron Jones Sr. scored 10.0 PPR points and Jacory Croskey-Merritt scored 12.6.
The call was wrong: Jacory Croskey-Merritt outscored Aaron Jones Sr. by 2.6.
Aaron Jones Sr. finished 4.4 points above the 5.6 the props implied.
Aaron Jones Sr., Week 1 against GB: 30 of 65 snaps, 12 carries for 40 yards, 1 target and 0 catches for 0 yards, 1 touchdown, 10.0 PPR points.
Aaron Jones Sr. finished as the week's RB26 in PPR scoring.
Jacory Croskey-Merritt, Week 1 against PHI: 34 of 70 snaps, 16 carries for 63 yards, 1 target and 1 catch for -7 yards, 1 touchdown, 12.6 PPR points.
Jacory Croskey-Merritt finished as the week's RB22 in PPR scoring.
Their other Week 1 calls
On the draft board
Ranked ahead
RB23 · MIN · bye 6
2025 vs rush yds line 4-8
- Overall rank
- 50
- Draft pick
- no consensus
- Tier
- 3
Ranked behind
RB33 · WAS · bye 7
2025 vs anytime td line 3-9
- Overall rank
- 78
- Draft pick
- no consensus
- Tier
- 4
The board cards are draft figures, not the week's call. Locks at kickoff, graded after. When the start/sit engine grades week 1, the call and the result appear on the public record, wrong ones included.
The gap between them
- Spots apart on the board28
- Pick differencenot comparable without a consensus on both
- Tierstier 3 and tier 4
- Board size244 draftable players
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