Start Bijan Robinson or Aaron Jones Sr.? Week 4
Locked at kickoff. Graded after.
Start Bijan Robinson over Aaron Jones Sr.
Right: 27.7 to 16.8
- Market projected
- 17.7
- pre-game
- Snap share
- 60%
- Week 4
- Target share
- 10%
- Week 4
- Scored
- 27.7
- PPR pts
- Market projected
- 17.3
- pre-game
- Scored
- 16.8
- PPR pts
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Our Week 4 call
Start Bijan Robinson over Aaron Jones Sr. in Week 4.
Market-based projections have Bijan Robinson at 17.7 points and Aaron Jones Sr. at 17.3, a gap of 0.4. That is inside the noise of a single catch, so treat it as close to a coin flip.
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What the market projects
Player markets imply 17.7 fantasy points for Bijan Robinson, with 80 percent of the markets a RB needs posted.
The market gives Bijan Robinson a 63% chance to score a touchdown (3 market sources).
Player markets imply 17.3 fantasy points for Aaron Jones Sr., with 100 percent of the markets a RB needs posted.
The market gives Aaron Jones Sr. a 54% chance to score a touchdown (7 market sources).
That puts Bijan Robinson 0.4 points ahead of Aaron Jones Sr. on the market projections.
Injury status
Bijan Robinson was not on the injury report when the call was made.
Aaron Jones Sr. was not on the injury report when the call was made.
Usage before Week 4
Through Week 3, Bijan Robinson played 66 percent of ATL snaps, took 65 percent of the carries, drew 22 percent of the targets and had 85 percent of the red zone chances.
Bijan Robinson, Week 1 against PIT: 46 of 60 snaps, 21 carries for 83 yards, 10 targets and 8 catches for 90 yards, 1 touchdown.
Bijan Robinson, Week 2 against CAR: 35 of 69 snaps, 16 carries for 72 yards, 4 targets and 3 catches for 9 yards.
Bijan Robinson, Week 3 against GB: 51 of 71 snaps, 29 carries for 194 yards, 2 targets and 2 catches for 19 yards, 2 touchdowns.
Their 2025 seasons
In 2025, Bijan Robinson played 17 games for ATL and scored 370.8 PPR points, 21.8 a game, finishing RB2.
He ran 287 times for 1478 yards and 7 touchdowns, and caught 79 of 103 targets for 820 yards.
He was on the field for 78 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.
How Week 4 went
Bijan Robinson scored 27.7 PPR points and Aaron Jones Sr. scored 16.8.
The call was right: Bijan Robinson outscored Aaron Jones Sr. by 10.9.
Bijan Robinson finished 10.0 points above the 17.7 the market projected.
Bijan Robinson, Week 4 against NO: 34 of 57 snaps, 19 carries for 145 yards, 2 targets and 1 catch for 2 yards, 2 touchdowns, 27.7 PPR points.
Bijan Robinson finished as the week's RB5 in PPR scoring.
Aaron Jones Sr. finished 0.5 points below the 17.3 the market projected.
Their other Week 4 calls
On the draft board
Ranked ahead
RB2 · ATL · bye 11
2026 vs carries line 2-2
- Overall rank
- 2
- Draft pick
- no consensus
- Tier
- 2
Ranked behind
RB32 · MIN · bye 6
2026 vs carries line 4-0
- Overall rank
- 95
- Draft pick
- no consensus
- Tier
- 10
The board cards are draft figures, not the week's call. This call locked at kickoff and was not edited after. It is on the public record, wrong ones included.
The gap between them
- Spots apart on the board93
- Pick differencenot comparable without a consensus on both
- Tierstier 2 and tier 10
- Board size203 draftable players
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