Start Derrick Henry or Aaron Jones Sr.? Week 5
Locks at kickoff, graded after.
Start Derrick Henry over Aaron Jones Sr.
- Market projects
- 17.7
- fantasy pts
- Snap share
- 59%
- Through Week 4
- Target share
- 7%
- Through Week 4
- Market projects
- 17.0
- fantasy pts
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Our Week 5 call
Start Derrick Henry over Aaron Jones Sr. in Week 5.
Market-based projections have Derrick Henry at 17.7 points and Aaron Jones Sr. at 17.0, a gap of 0.7. That is inside the noise of a single catch, so treat it as close to a coin flip. Derrick Henry's number is scaled up from a partial market: not every stat the position needs is posted yet, so the rest is estimated from what is.
What the market projects
Player markets imply 17.7 fantasy points for Derrick Henry, with 80 percent of the markets a RB needs posted.
The market has Derrick Henry at 85.5 rushing yards, with a 57% chance to score a touchdown (15 and 15 market sources).
Player markets imply 17.0 fantasy points for Aaron Jones Sr., with 100 percent of the markets a RB needs posted.
The market has Aaron Jones Sr. at 72.5 rushing yards, 18.5 receiving yards and 3.5 receptions, with a 51% chance to score a touchdown (12, 14, 10 and 14 market sources).
That puts Derrick Henry 0.7 points ahead of Aaron Jones Sr. on the market projections.
Injury status
Derrick Henry is not on the injury report.
Aaron Jones Sr. is not on the injury report.
Usage before Week 5
Through Week 4, Derrick Henry played 59 percent of BAL snaps, took 73 percent of the carries, drew 7 percent of the targets and had 55 percent of the red zone chances.
Derrick Henry, Week 1 against IND: 37 of 68 snaps, 24 carries for 144 yards, 1 target and 1 catch for 19 yards, 3 touchdowns.
Derrick Henry, Week 2 against NO: 31 of 58 snaps, 16 carries for 68 yards, 3 targets and 3 catches for 19 yards, 1 touchdown.
Derrick Henry, Week 3 against DAL: 43 of 64 snaps, 26 carries for 89 yards, 1 target and 1 catch for 0 yards, 2 touchdowns.
Derrick Henry, Week 4 against TEN: 40 of 64 snaps, 23 carries for 73 yards, 2 targets and 2 catches for 6 yards, 1 touchdown.
Their 2025 seasons
In 2025, Derrick Henry played 17 games for BAL and scored 279.5 PPR points, 16.4 a game, finishing RB8.
He ran 307 times for 1595 yards and 16 touchdowns, and caught 15 of 21 targets for 150 yards.
He was on the field for 54 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.
Their other Week 5 calls
On the draft board
Ranked ahead
RB7 · BAL · bye 13
2026 vs carries line 3-1
- Overall rank
- 12
- Draft pick
- no consensus
- Tier
- 4
Ranked behind
RB9 · MIN · bye 6
2026 vs carries line 4-0
- Overall rank
- 17
- Draft pick
- no consensus
- Tier
- 4
The board cards are draft figures, not the week's call. Locks at kickoff, graded after. When the start/sit engine grades week 5, the call and the result appear on the public record, wrong ones included.
The gap between them
- Spots apart on the board5
- Pick differencenot comparable without a consensus on both
- Tiersboth in tier 4
- Board size220 draftable players
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