Start Brian Thomas Jr. or Alec Pierce? Week 1
Locks at kickoff, graded after.
Start Alec Pierce over Brian Thomas Jr.
Right: 10.1 to 7.0
- BAL D vs WR
- 25.0
- 12th fewest to WRs (2026)
- Snap share
- 59%
- Week 1
- Target share
- 21%
- Week 1
- Scored
- 10.1
- PPR pts
- Books imply
- 3.9
- fantasy pts
- CLE D vs WR
- 48.5
- 3rd most to WRs (2026)
- Snap share
- 35%
- Week 1
- Target share
- 14%
- Week 1
- Scored
- 7.0
- PPR pts
Our Week 1 call
Start Alec Pierce over Brian Thomas Jr. in Week 1.
Brian Thomas Jr. is priced by the books at 3.9 projected points and Alec Pierce is not priced at all, so we are leaning on where drafters take them. Drafters take Alec Pierce at ADP 71 and Brian Thomas Jr. at 77.
What the books imply
No sportsbook posted a player market for Alec Pierce in Week 1.
Player prop markets imply 3.9 fantasy points for Brian Thomas Jr., with 40 percent of the markets a WR needs posted.
Week 1 matchups
Alec Pierce and IND host BAL.
BAL allowed 25.0 fantasy points to WRs in its one game this season, the 12th fewest in the league.
Receivers caught passes for 130 yards and no touchdowns against BAL.
Brian Thomas Jr. and JAX host CLE on Sunday at 1:00 PM ET.
CLE allowed 48.5 fantasy points to WRs in its one game this season, the 3rd most in the league.
Receivers caught passes for 183 yards and 3 touchdowns against CLE.
By points allowed to the position, Brian Thomas Jr. has the softer matchup.
Injury status
Alec Pierce was not on the injury report when the call was made.
Brian Thomas Jr. was not on the injury report when the call was made.
Their 2025 seasons
In 2025, Alec Pierce played 15 games for IND and scored 183.3 PPR points, 12.2 a game, finishing WR28.
He caught 47 of 84 targets for 1003 yards and 6 touchdowns, with 8 red zone targets and 829 air yards.
He was on the field for 87 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.
Alec Pierce, Week 18 of 2025 against HOU: 7 targets and 4 catches for 132 yards, 2 touchdowns, 29.2 PPR points.
Alec Pierce, Week 17 of 2025 against JAX: 52 of 57 snaps, 5 targets and 0 catches for 0 yards.
Alec Pierce, Week 16 of 2025 against SF: 58 of 60 snaps, 4 targets and 4 catches for 86 yards, 2 touchdowns, 24.6 PPR points.
In 2025, Brian Thomas Jr. played 14 games for JAX and scored 138.8 PPR points, 9.9 a game, finishing WR42.
He caught 48 of 91 targets for 707 yards and 2 touchdowns, with 6 red zone targets and 548 air yards.
He was on the field for 79 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.
Brian Thomas Jr., Week 18 of 2025 against TEN: 5 targets and 3 catches for 49 yards, 7.9 PPR points.
Brian Thomas Jr., Week 17 of 2025 against IND: 54 of 69 snaps, 7 targets and 4 catches for 39 yards, 7.9 PPR points.
Brian Thomas Jr., Week 16 of 2025 against DEN: 51 of 70 snaps, 3 targets and 2 catches for 18 yards, 3.8 PPR points.
How Week 1 went
Alec Pierce scored 10.1 PPR points and Brian Thomas Jr. scored 7.0.
The call was right: Alec Pierce outscored Brian Thomas Jr. by 3.1.
Alec Pierce, Week 1 against BAL: 32 of 54 snaps, 6 targets and 4 catches for 61 yards, 10.1 PPR points.
Alec Pierce finished as the week's WR34 in PPR scoring.
Brian Thomas Jr. finished 3.1 points above the 3.9 the props implied.
Brian Thomas Jr., Week 1 against CLE: 20 of 57 snaps, 3 targets and 3 catches for 40 yards, 7.0 PPR points.
Brian Thomas Jr. finished as the week's WR58 in PPR scoring.
Their other Week 1 calls
On the draft board
Ranked ahead
WR28 · JAX · bye 7
2025 vs rec yds line 4-10
- Overall rank
- 95
- Draft pick
- no consensus
- Tier
- 5
Ranked behind
WR44 · IND · bye 13
2025 vs anytime td line 4-11
- Overall rank
- 119
- Draft pick
- no consensus
- Tier
- 6
The board cards are draft figures, not the week's call. Locks at kickoff, graded after. When the start/sit engine grades week 1, the call and the result appear on the public record, wrong ones included.
The gap between them
- Spots apart on the board24
- Pick differencenot comparable without a consensus on both
- Tierstier 5 and tier 6
- Board size244 draftable players
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