Start Chris Godwin Jr. or Brian Thomas Jr.? Week 1
Locks at kickoff, graded after.
Start Chris Godwin Jr. over Brian Thomas Jr.
Right: 8.3 to 7.0- Books imply
- 4.5
- fantasy pts
- CIN D vs WR
- 25.8
- 13th fewest to WRs (2026)
- Snap share
- 86%
- Week 1
- Target share
- 15%
- Week 1
- Scored
- 8.3
- PPR pts
- Books imply
- 3.8
- fantasy pts
- CLE D vs WR
- 48.5
- 3rd most to WRs (2026)
- Snap share
- 35%
- Week 1
- Target share
- 14%
- Week 1
- Scored
- 7.0
- PPR pts
Our Week 1 call
Start Chris Godwin Jr. over Brian Thomas Jr. in Week 1.
De-vigged player props project Chris Godwin Jr. at 4.5 points and Brian Thomas Jr. at 3.8, a gap of 0.7. That is inside the noise of a single catch, so treat it as close to a coin flip. Drafters take Chris Godwin Jr. at ADP 77 and Brian Thomas Jr. at 81. Market coverage on Chris Godwin Jr. is 40 percent of what his position needs, so the market side of this carries proportionally less weight.
What the books imply
Player prop markets imply 4.6 fantasy points for Chris Godwin Jr., with 40 percent of the markets a WR needs posted.
Player prop markets imply 3.8 fantasy points for Brian Thomas Jr., with 40 percent of the markets a WR needs posted.
That puts Chris Godwin Jr. 0.7 points ahead of Brian Thomas Jr. on the books.
Week 1 matchups
Chris Godwin Jr. and TB visit CIN on Sunday at 1:00 PM ET.
CIN allowed 25.8 fantasy points to WRs in its one game this season, the 13th fewest in the league.
Receivers caught passes for 139 yards and no touchdowns against CIN.
Brian Thomas Jr. and JAX host CLE on Sunday at 1:00 PM ET.
CLE allowed 48.5 fantasy points to WRs in its one game this season, the 3rd most in the league.
Receivers caught passes for 183 yards and 3 touchdowns against CLE.
By points allowed to the position, Brian Thomas Jr. has the softer matchup.
Injury status
Chris Godwin Jr. was not on the injury report when the call was made.
Brian Thomas Jr. was not on the injury report when the call was made.
Their 2025 seasons
In 2025, Chris Godwin Jr. played 9 games for TB and scored 83.0 PPR points, 9.2 a game, finishing WR78.
He caught 33 of 51 targets for 360 yards and 2 touchdowns, with 7 red zone targets and 154 air yards.
He was on the field for 71 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.
Chris Godwin Jr., Week 18 of 2025 against CAR: 47 of 67 snaps, 1 target and 1 catch for 8 yards, 1.8 PPR points.
Chris Godwin Jr., Week 17 of 2025 against MIA: 53 of 67 snaps, 8 targets and 7 catches for 108 yards, 1 touchdown, 23.8 PPR points.
Chris Godwin Jr., Week 16 of 2025 against CAR: 41 of 64 snaps, 6 targets and 5 catches for 30 yards, 8.0 PPR points.
In 2025, Brian Thomas Jr. played 14 games for JAX and scored 138.8 PPR points, 9.9 a game, finishing WR42.
He caught 48 of 91 targets for 707 yards and 2 touchdowns, with 6 red zone targets and 548 air yards.
He was on the field for 79 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.
Brian Thomas Jr., Week 18 of 2025 against TEN: 5 targets and 3 catches for 49 yards, 7.9 PPR points.
Brian Thomas Jr., Week 17 of 2025 against IND: 54 of 69 snaps, 7 targets and 4 catches for 39 yards, 7.9 PPR points.
Brian Thomas Jr., Week 16 of 2025 against DEN: 51 of 70 snaps, 3 targets and 2 catches for 18 yards, 3.8 PPR points.
How Week 1 went
Chris Godwin Jr. scored 8.3 PPR points and Brian Thomas Jr. scored 7.0.
The call was right: Chris Godwin Jr. outscored Brian Thomas Jr. by 1.3.
Chris Godwin Jr. finished 3.8 points above the 4.6 the props implied.
Chris Godwin Jr., Week 1 against CIN: 49 of 57 snaps, 1 carry for 3 yards, 4 targets and 4 catches for 40 yards, 8.3 PPR points.
Chris Godwin Jr. finished as the week's WR47 in PPR scoring.
Brian Thomas Jr. finished 3.2 points above the 3.8 the props implied.
Brian Thomas Jr., Week 1 against CLE: 20 of 57 snaps, 3 targets and 3 catches for 40 yards, 7.0 PPR points.
Brian Thomas Jr. finished as the week's WR58 in PPR scoring.
Their other Week 1 calls
On the draft board
Ranked ahead
WR13 · TB · bye 10
2025 vs rec yds line 3-6
- Overall rank
- 73
- Draft pick
- no consensus
- Tier
- 5
Ranked behind
WR28 · JAX · bye 7
2025 vs rec yds line 4-10
- Overall rank
- 95
- Draft pick
- no consensus
- Tier
- 5
The board cards are draft figures, not the week's call. Locks at kickoff, graded after. When the start/sit engine grades week 1, the call and the result appear on the public record, wrong ones included.
The gap between them
- Spots apart on the board22
- Pick differencenot comparable without a consensus on both
- Tiersboth in tier 5
- Board size244 draftable players
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