Start Brian Thomas Jr. or Carnell Tate? Week 3

Our Week 3 call

Start Brian Thomas Jr. over Carnell Tate in Week 3.

De-vigged player props project Brian Thomas Jr. at 9.3 points and Carnell Tate at 9.2, a gap of 0.1. That is inside the noise of a single catch, so treat it as close to a coin flip. Both numbers are scaled up from a partial market: the books have not posted every stat the position needs, so the rest is estimated from what they have.

What the books imply

Player prop markets imply 9.3 fantasy points for Brian Thomas Jr., with 100 percent of the markets a WR needs posted.

The books have Brian Thomas Jr. at 36.5 receiving yards and 3.5 receptions, with a 25% chance to score a touchdown (15, 13 and 15 books).

Player prop markets imply 9.2 fantasy points for Carnell Tate, with 100 percent of the markets a WR needs posted.

The books have Carnell Tate at 38.5 receiving yards and 3.5 receptions, with a 21% chance to score a touchdown (17, 13 and 16 books).

That puts Brian Thomas Jr. 0.1 points ahead of Carnell Tate on the books.

Injury status

Brian Thomas Jr. is not on the injury report.

Carnell Tate is not on the injury report.

Usage before Week 3

Through Week 2, Carnell Tate played 82 percent of TEN snaps, drew 24 percent of the targets, earned 35 percent of the air yards and had 0 percent of the red zone chances.

Carnell Tate, Week 1 against NYJ: 44 of 50 snaps, 6 targets and 4 catches for 38 yards.

Carnell Tate, Week 2 against PHI: 40 of 53 snaps, 5 targets and 3 catches for 27 yards.

Their other Week 3 calls

• Start Brian Thomas Jr. over Chris Godwin Jr..
• Start Courtland Sutton over Brian Thomas Jr..
• Start Brian Thomas Jr. over Dontayvion Wicks.
• Start Carnell Tate over Chris Godwin Jr..
• Start Carnell Tate over Courtland Sutton.
• Start Dontayvion Wicks over Carnell Tate.