Start Brock Purdy or Matthew Stafford? Week 1

Our Week 1 call

Start Matthew Stafford over Brock Purdy in Week 1.

De-vigged player props project Matthew Stafford at 10.4 points and Brock Purdy at 9.7, a gap of 0.7. That is inside the noise of a single catch, so treat it as close to a coin flip. Drafters take Matthew Stafford at ADP 72 and Brock Purdy at 85. Market coverage on Matthew Stafford is 45 percent of what his position needs, so the market side of this carries proportionally less weight.

What the books imply

Player prop markets imply 10.4 fantasy points for Matthew Stafford, with 45 percent of the markets a QB needs posted.

Player prop markets imply 9.7 fantasy points for Brock Purdy, with 45 percent of the markets a QB needs posted.

That puts Matthew Stafford 0.7 points ahead of Brock Purdy on the books.

Week 1 matchups

Matthew Stafford and LAR host SF on Thursday at 8:35 PM ET.

SF allowed 6.5 fantasy points to QBs in its one game this season, the 2nd fewest in the league.

Quarterbacks threw for 168 yards and no touchdowns against SF, with an interception.

Brock Purdy and SF visit LAR on Thursday at 8:35 PM ET.

LAR allowed 22.1 fantasy points to QBs in its one game this season, the 10th most in the league.

Quarterbacks threw for 205 yards and 3 touchdowns against LAR, with an interception.

By points allowed to the position, Brock Purdy has the softer matchup.

Injury status

Matthew Stafford was not on the injury report when the call was made.

Brock Purdy was not on the injury report when the call was made.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025, Matthew Stafford played 17 games for LAR and scored 358.4 PPR points, 21.1 a game, finishing QB3.

He completed 388 of 597 passes for 4707 yards, 46 touchdowns and 8 interceptions, and ran 29 times for 1 yards and 0 touchdowns.

He was on the field for 99 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Matthew Stafford, Week 18 of 2025 against ARI: 25 of 40 passes for 259 yards, 4 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 1 carry for 3 yards, 26.7 PPR points.

Matthew Stafford, Week 17 of 2025 against ATL: 65 of 65 snaps, 22 of 38 passes for 269 yards, 2 touchdowns and 3 interceptions, 15.8 PPR points.

Matthew Stafford, Week 16 of 2025 against SEA: 92 of 92 snaps, 29 of 49 passes for 457 yards, 3 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 2 carries for 6 yards, 30.9 PPR points.

In 2025, Brock Purdy played 9 games for SF and scored 187.4 PPR points, 20.8 a game, finishing QB24.

He completed 197 of 284 passes for 2167 yards, 20 touchdowns and 10 interceptions, and ran 33 times for 147 yards and 3 touchdowns.

He was on the field for 98 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Brock Purdy, Week 18 of 2025 against SEA: 42 of 42 snaps, 19 of 27 passes for 127 yards, 0 touchdowns and 1 interception, 2 carries for 21 yards, 6.2 PPR points.

Brock Purdy, Week 17 of 2025 against CHI: 72 of 72 snaps, 24 of 33 passes for 303 yards, 3 touchdowns and 1 interception, 6 carries for 28 yards, 37.9 PPR points.

Brock Purdy, Week 16 of 2025 against IND: 63 of 66 snaps, 25 of 34 passes for 295 yards, 5 touchdowns and 1 interception, 2 carries for 11 yards, 31.9 PPR points.

How Week 1 went

Matthew Stafford scored 5.1 PPR points and Brock Purdy scored 22.1.

The call was wrong: Brock Purdy outscored Matthew Stafford by 17.0.

Matthew Stafford finished 5.3 points below the 10.4 the props implied.

Matthew Stafford, Week 1 against SF: 51 of 61 snaps, 15 of 25 passes for 155 yards, 0 touchdowns and 1 interception, 2 carries for -1 yards, 5.1 PPR points.

Matthew Stafford finished as the week's QB32 in PPR scoring.

Brock Purdy finished 12.4 points above the 9.7 the props implied.

Brock Purdy, Week 1 against LAR: 65 of 65 snaps, 25 of 34 passes for 205 yards, 3 touchdowns and 1 interception, 5 carries for 29 yards, 22.1 PPR points.

Brock Purdy finished as the week's QB10 in PPR scoring.

Their other Week 1 calls

• Start Matthew Stafford over Caleb Williams.
• Start Dak Prescott over Matthew Stafford.
• Start Matthew Stafford over Jalen Hurts.
• Start Brock Purdy over Bo Nix.
• Start Brock Purdy over Caleb Williams.
• Start Brock Purdy over Jalen Hurts.