Start Malik Willis or C.J. Stroud? Week 1

Our Week 1 call

Start Malik Willis over C.J. Stroud in Week 1.

Malik Willis is priced by the books at 6.2 projected points. C.J. Stroud has no player market posted for this week, so his side of this call rests on consensus ADP and the news wire only. Drafters take Malik Willis at ADP 173 and C.J. Stroud at 167. Market coverage on Malik Willis is 55 percent of what his position needs, so the market side of this carries proportionally less weight.

What the books imply

No sportsbook posted a player market for C.J. Stroud in Week 1.

Player prop markets imply 6.2 fantasy points for Malik Willis, with 55 percent of the markets a QB needs posted.

Week 1 matchups

C.J. Stroud and HOU host BUF.

BUF allowed 16.5 fantasy points to QBs in its one game this season, the 16th most in the league.

Quarterbacks threw for 274 yards and 2 touchdowns against BUF, with no interceptions.

Malik Willis and MIA visit LV on Sunday at 4:25 PM ET.

LV allowed 17.7 fantasy points to QBs in its one game this season, the 13th most in the league.

Quarterbacks threw for 220 yards and no touchdowns against LV, with an interception.

By points allowed to the position, Malik Willis has the softer matchup.

Injury status

C.J. Stroud was not on the injury report when the call was made.

Malik Willis was not on the injury report when the call was made.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025, C.J. Stroud played 14 games for HOU and scored 216.5 PPR points, 15.5 a game, finishing QB21.

He completed 273 of 423 passes for 3041 yards, 19 touchdowns and 8 interceptions, and ran 48 times for 209 yards and 1 touchdown.

He was on the field for 93 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

C.J. Stroud, Week 18 of 2025 against IND: 14 of 23 passes for 169 yards, 1 touchdown and 0 interceptions, 2 carries for 5 yards, 17.3 PPR points.

C.J. Stroud, Week 17 of 2025 against LAC: 65 of 65 snaps, 16 of 28 passes for 244 yards, 2 touchdowns and 2 interceptions, 4 carries for 0 yards, 15.8 PPR points.

C.J. Stroud, Week 16 of 2025 against LV: 65 of 65 snaps, 23 of 35 passes for 187 yards, 1 touchdown and 0 interceptions, 4 carries for 0 yards, 11.5 PPR points.

In 2025, Malik Willis played 4 games for GB and scored 51.2 PPR points, 12.8 a game, finishing QB45.

He completed 30 of 35 passes for 422 yards, 3 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, and ran 22 times for 123 yards and 2 touchdowns.

He was on the field for 10 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Malik Willis, Week 17 of 2025 against BAL: 39 of 47 snaps, 18 of 21 passes for 288 yards, 1 touchdown and 0 interceptions, 9 carries for 60 yards, 31.5 PPR points.

Malik Willis, Week 16 of 2025 against CHI: 46 of 72 snaps, 9 of 11 passes for 121 yards, 1 touchdown and 0 interceptions, 10 carries for 44 yards, 13.2 PPR points.

How Week 1 went

Malik Willis scored 17.7 PPR points and C.J. Stroud scored 16.5.

The call was right: Malik Willis outscored C.J. Stroud by 1.2.

Malik Willis finished 11.5 points above the 6.2 the props implied.

Malik Willis, Week 1 against LV: 56 of 56 snaps, 15 of 27 passes for 220 yards, 0 touchdowns and 1 interception, 6 carries for 39 yards, 17.7 PPR points.

Malik Willis finished as the week's QB13 in PPR scoring.

C.J. Stroud, Week 1 against BUF: 79 of 79 snaps, 26 of 38 passes for 274 yards, 2 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 2 carries for 15 yards, 16.5 PPR points.

C.J. Stroud finished as the week's QB16 in PPR scoring.

Their other Week 1 calls

• Start C.J. Stroud over Bryce Young.
• Start C.J. Stroud over Cam Ward.
• Start Daniel Jones over C.J. Stroud.
• Start Bryce Young over Malik Willis.
• Start Cam Ward over Malik Willis.
• Start Daniel Jones over Malik Willis.