Start C.J. Stroud or Sam Darnold? Week 1

Our Week 1 call

Start Sam Darnold over C.J. Stroud in Week 1.

Sam Darnold is priced by the books at 2.7 projected points. C.J. Stroud has no player market posted for this week, so his side of this call rests on consensus ADP and the news wire only. Drafters take Sam Darnold at ADP 155 and C.J. Stroud at 176. Market coverage on Sam Darnold is 45 percent of what his position needs, so the market side of this carries proportionally less weight.

What the books imply

Player prop markets imply 2.7 fantasy points for Sam Darnold, with 45 percent of the markets a QB needs posted.

No sportsbook posted a player market for C.J. Stroud in Week 1.

Week 1 matchups

Sam Darnold and SEA host NE on Wednesday at 8:20 PM ET.

NE allowed 13.3 fantasy points to QBs in its one game this season, the 10th fewest in the league.

Quarterbacks threw for 200 yards and a touchdown against NE, with no interceptions.

C.J. Stroud and HOU host BUF.

BUF allowed 16.5 fantasy points to QBs in its one game this season, the 16th most in the league.

Quarterbacks threw for 274 yards and 2 touchdowns against BUF, with no interceptions.

By points allowed to the position, C.J. Stroud has the softer matchup.

Injury status

Sam Darnold was not on the injury report when the call was made.

C.J. Stroud was not on the injury report when the call was made.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025, Sam Darnold played 17 games for SEA and scored 249.4 PPR points, 14.7 a game, finishing QB13.

He completed 323 of 477 passes for 4048 yards, 25 touchdowns and 14 interceptions, and ran 35 times for 95 yards and 0 touchdowns.

He was on the field for 96 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Sam Darnold, Week 18 of 2025 against SF: 69 of 69 snaps, 20 of 26 passes for 198 yards, 0 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 6 carries for 9 yards, 8.8 PPR points.

Sam Darnold, Week 17 of 2025 against CAR: 66 of 66 snaps, 18 of 27 passes for 147 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception, 3 carries for 2 yards, 7.1 PPR points.

Sam Darnold, Week 16 of 2025 against LAR: 68 of 68 snaps, 22 of 34 passes for 270 yards, 2 touchdowns and 2 interceptions, 3 carries for 7 yards, 21.5 PPR points.

In 2025, C.J. Stroud played 14 games for HOU and scored 216.5 PPR points, 15.5 a game, finishing QB21.

He completed 273 of 423 passes for 3041 yards, 19 touchdowns and 8 interceptions, and ran 48 times for 209 yards and 1 touchdown.

He was on the field for 93 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

C.J. Stroud, Week 18 of 2025 against IND: 14 of 23 passes for 169 yards, 1 touchdown and 0 interceptions, 2 carries for 5 yards, 17.3 PPR points.

C.J. Stroud, Week 17 of 2025 against LAC: 65 of 65 snaps, 16 of 28 passes for 244 yards, 2 touchdowns and 2 interceptions, 4 carries for 0 yards, 15.8 PPR points.

C.J. Stroud, Week 16 of 2025 against LV: 65 of 65 snaps, 23 of 35 passes for 187 yards, 1 touchdown and 0 interceptions, 4 carries for 0 yards, 11.5 PPR points.

How Week 1 went

Sam Darnold scored 0.5 PPR points and C.J. Stroud scored 16.5.

The call was wrong: C.J. Stroud outscored Sam Darnold by 15.9.

Sam Darnold finished 2.2 points below the 2.7 the props implied.

Sam Darnold, Week 1 against NE: 5 of 50 snaps, 1 of 2 passes for 13 yards, 0 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 0.5 PPR points.

Sam Darnold finished as the week's QB36 in PPR scoring.

C.J. Stroud, Week 1 against BUF: 79 of 79 snaps, 26 of 38 passes for 274 yards, 2 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 2 carries for 15 yards, 16.5 PPR points.

C.J. Stroud finished as the week's QB16 in PPR scoring.

Their other Week 1 calls

• Start Baker Mayfield over Sam Darnold.
• Start Sam Darnold over Daniel Jones.
• Start Sam Darnold over Jordan Love.
• Start C.J. Stroud over Bryce Young.
• Start C.J. Stroud over Cam Ward.
• Start Daniel Jones over C.J. Stroud.