Start Baker Mayfield or Sam Darnold? Week 1

Our Week 1 call

Start Baker Mayfield over Sam Darnold in Week 1.

Sam Darnold is priced by the books at 2.7 projected points and Baker Mayfield is not priced at all, so we are leaning on where drafters take them. Drafters take Baker Mayfield at ADP 136 and Sam Darnold at 155.

What the books imply

No sportsbook posted a player market for Baker Mayfield in Week 1.

Player prop markets imply 2.7 fantasy points for Sam Darnold, with 45 percent of the markets a QB needs posted.

Week 1 matchups

Baker Mayfield and TB visit CIN.

CIN allowed 11.6 fantasy points to QBs in its one game this season, the 6th fewest in the league.

Quarterbacks threw for 216 yards and no touchdowns against CIN, with no interceptions.

Sam Darnold and SEA host NE on Wednesday at 8:20 PM ET.

NE allowed 13.3 fantasy points to QBs in its one game this season, the 10th fewest in the league.

Quarterbacks threw for 200 yards and a touchdown against NE, with no interceptions.

By points allowed to the position, Sam Darnold has the softer matchup.

Injury status

Baker Mayfield was not on the injury report when the call was made.

Sam Darnold was not on the injury report when the call was made.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025, Baker Mayfield played 17 games for TB and scored 282.9 PPR points, 16.6 a game, finishing QB12.

He completed 343 of 543 passes for 3693 yards, 26 touchdowns and 11 interceptions, and ran 55 times for 382 yards and 1 touchdown.

He was on the field for 97 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Baker Mayfield, Week 18 of 2025 against CAR: 67 of 67 snaps, 16 of 22 passes for 203 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception, 4 carries for 31 yards, 14.2 PPR points.

Baker Mayfield, Week 17 of 2025 against MIA: 67 of 67 snaps, 33 of 44 passes for 346 yards, 2 touchdowns and 2 interceptions, 3 carries for 16 yards, 19.4 PPR points.

Baker Mayfield, Week 16 of 2025 against CAR: 64 of 64 snaps, 18 of 26 passes for 145 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception, 4 carries for 49 yards, 13.7 PPR points.

In 2025, Sam Darnold played 17 games for SEA and scored 249.4 PPR points, 14.7 a game, finishing QB13.

He completed 323 of 477 passes for 4048 yards, 25 touchdowns and 14 interceptions, and ran 35 times for 95 yards and 0 touchdowns.

He was on the field for 96 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Sam Darnold, Week 18 of 2025 against SF: 69 of 69 snaps, 20 of 26 passes for 198 yards, 0 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 6 carries for 9 yards, 8.8 PPR points.

Sam Darnold, Week 17 of 2025 against CAR: 66 of 66 snaps, 18 of 27 passes for 147 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception, 3 carries for 2 yards, 7.1 PPR points.

Sam Darnold, Week 16 of 2025 against LAR: 68 of 68 snaps, 22 of 34 passes for 270 yards, 2 touchdowns and 2 interceptions, 3 carries for 7 yards, 21.5 PPR points.

How Week 1 went

Baker Mayfield scored 11.6 PPR points and Sam Darnold scored 0.5.

The call was right: Baker Mayfield outscored Sam Darnold by 11.1.

Baker Mayfield, Week 1 against CIN: 57 of 57 snaps, 23 of 28 passes for 216 yards, 0 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 5 carries for 30 yards, 11.6 PPR points.

Baker Mayfield finished as the week's QB27 in PPR scoring.

Sam Darnold finished 2.2 points below the 2.7 the props implied.

Sam Darnold, Week 1 against NE: 5 of 50 snaps, 1 of 2 passes for 13 yards, 0 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 0.5 PPR points.

Sam Darnold finished as the week's QB36 in PPR scoring.

Their other Week 1 calls

• Start Bo Nix over Baker Mayfield.
• Start Jaxson Dart over Baker Mayfield.
• Start Baker Mayfield over Jordan Love.
• Start Sam Darnold over C.J. Stroud.
• Start Sam Darnold over Daniel Jones.
• Start Sam Darnold over Jordan Love.