Start C.J. Stroud or Tyler Shough? Week 1

Our Week 1 call

Start Tyler Shough over C.J. Stroud in Week 1.

Tyler Shough is priced by the books at 1.5 projected points. C.J. Stroud has no player market posted for this week, so his side of this call rests on consensus ADP and the news wire only. Drafters take Tyler Shough at ADP 139 and C.J. Stroud at 167. Market coverage on Tyler Shough is 33 percent of what his position needs, so the market side of this carries proportionally less weight.

What the books imply

Player prop markets imply 1.5 fantasy points for Tyler Shough, with 33 percent of the markets a QB needs posted.

No sportsbook posted a player market for C.J. Stroud in Week 1.

Week 1 matchups

Tyler Shough and NO visit DET on Sunday at 1:00 PM ET.

DET allowed 25.2 fantasy points to QBs in its one game this season, the 6th most in the league.

Quarterbacks threw for 410 yards and 3 touchdowns against DET, with 2 interceptions.

C.J. Stroud and HOU host BUF.

BUF allowed 16.5 fantasy points to QBs in its one game this season, the 16th most in the league.

Quarterbacks threw for 274 yards and 2 touchdowns against BUF, with no interceptions.

By points allowed to the position, Tyler Shough has the softer matchup.

Injury status

Tyler Shough was not on the injury report when the call was made.

C.J. Stroud was not on the injury report when the call was made.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025, Tyler Shough played 11 games for NO and scored 164.0 PPR points, 14.9 a game, finishing QB26.

He completed 221 of 327 passes for 2384 yards, 10 touchdowns and 6 interceptions, and ran 45 times for 186 yards and 3 touchdowns.

He was on the field for 51 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Tyler Shough, Week 18 of 2025 against ATL: 23 of 35 passes for 259 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception, 3 carries for 34 yards, 22.8 PPR points.

Tyler Shough, Week 17 of 2025 against TEN: 53 of 54 snaps, 22 of 27 passes for 333 yards, 2 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 4 carries for 6 yards, 21.9 PPR points.

Tyler Shough, Week 16 of 2025 against NYJ: 76 of 78 snaps, 32 of 49 passes for 308 yards, 1 touchdown and 0 interceptions, 2 carries for 8 yards, 17.1 PPR points.

In 2025, C.J. Stroud played 14 games for HOU and scored 216.5 PPR points, 15.5 a game, finishing QB21.

He completed 273 of 423 passes for 3041 yards, 19 touchdowns and 8 interceptions, and ran 48 times for 209 yards and 1 touchdown.

He was on the field for 93 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

C.J. Stroud, Week 18 of 2025 against IND: 14 of 23 passes for 169 yards, 1 touchdown and 0 interceptions, 2 carries for 5 yards, 17.3 PPR points.

C.J. Stroud, Week 17 of 2025 against LAC: 65 of 65 snaps, 16 of 28 passes for 244 yards, 2 touchdowns and 2 interceptions, 4 carries for 0 yards, 15.8 PPR points.

C.J. Stroud, Week 16 of 2025 against LV: 65 of 65 snaps, 23 of 35 passes for 187 yards, 1 touchdown and 0 interceptions, 4 carries for 0 yards, 11.5 PPR points.

How Week 1 went

Tyler Shough scored 25.2 PPR points and C.J. Stroud scored 16.5.

The call was right: Tyler Shough outscored C.J. Stroud by 8.7.

Tyler Shough finished 23.7 points above the 1.5 the props implied.

Tyler Shough, Week 1 against DET: 90 of 90 snaps, 35 of 56 passes for 410 yards, 3 touchdowns and 2 interceptions, 4 carries for 8 yards, 25.2 PPR points.

Tyler Shough finished as the week's QB6 in PPR scoring.

C.J. Stroud, Week 1 against BUF: 79 of 79 snaps, 26 of 38 passes for 274 yards, 2 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 2 carries for 15 yards, 16.5 PPR points.

C.J. Stroud finished as the week's QB16 in PPR scoring.

Their other Week 1 calls

• Start Baker Mayfield over Tyler Shough.
• Start Tyler Shough over Daniel Jones.
• Start Jaxson Dart over Tyler Shough.
• Start C.J. Stroud over Bryce Young.
• Start C.J. Stroud over Cam Ward.
• Start Daniel Jones over C.J. Stroud.