Start Tyler Shough or Baker Mayfield? Week 1

Our Week 1 call

Start Baker Mayfield over Tyler Shough in Week 1.

Tyler Shough is priced by the books at 1.5 projected points and Baker Mayfield is not priced at all, so we are leaning on where drafters take them. Drafters take Baker Mayfield at ADP 134 and Tyler Shough at 139.

What the books imply

No sportsbook posted a player market for Baker Mayfield in Week 1.

Player prop markets imply 1.5 fantasy points for Tyler Shough, with 33 percent of the markets a QB needs posted.

Week 1 matchups

Baker Mayfield and TB visit CIN.

CIN allowed 11.6 fantasy points to QBs in its one game this season, the 6th fewest in the league.

Quarterbacks threw for 216 yards and no touchdowns against CIN, with no interceptions.

Tyler Shough and NO visit DET on Sunday at 1:00 PM ET.

DET allowed 25.2 fantasy points to QBs in its one game this season, the 6th most in the league.

Quarterbacks threw for 410 yards and 3 touchdowns against DET, with 2 interceptions.

By points allowed to the position, Tyler Shough has the softer matchup.

Injury status

Baker Mayfield was not on the injury report when the call was made.

Tyler Shough was not on the injury report when the call was made.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025, Baker Mayfield played 17 games for TB and scored 282.9 PPR points, 16.6 a game, finishing QB12.

He completed 343 of 543 passes for 3693 yards, 26 touchdowns and 11 interceptions, and ran 55 times for 382 yards and 1 touchdown.

He was on the field for 97 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Baker Mayfield, Week 18 of 2025 against CAR: 67 of 67 snaps, 16 of 22 passes for 203 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception, 4 carries for 31 yards, 14.2 PPR points.

Baker Mayfield, Week 17 of 2025 against MIA: 67 of 67 snaps, 33 of 44 passes for 346 yards, 2 touchdowns and 2 interceptions, 3 carries for 16 yards, 19.4 PPR points.

Baker Mayfield, Week 16 of 2025 against CAR: 64 of 64 snaps, 18 of 26 passes for 145 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception, 4 carries for 49 yards, 13.7 PPR points.

In 2025, Tyler Shough played 11 games for NO and scored 164.0 PPR points, 14.9 a game, finishing QB26.

He completed 221 of 327 passes for 2384 yards, 10 touchdowns and 6 interceptions, and ran 45 times for 186 yards and 3 touchdowns.

He was on the field for 51 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Tyler Shough, Week 18 of 2025 against ATL: 23 of 35 passes for 259 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception, 3 carries for 34 yards, 22.8 PPR points.

Tyler Shough, Week 17 of 2025 against TEN: 53 of 54 snaps, 22 of 27 passes for 333 yards, 2 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 4 carries for 6 yards, 21.9 PPR points.

Tyler Shough, Week 16 of 2025 against NYJ: 76 of 78 snaps, 32 of 49 passes for 308 yards, 1 touchdown and 0 interceptions, 2 carries for 8 yards, 17.1 PPR points.

How Week 1 went

Baker Mayfield scored 11.6 PPR points and Tyler Shough scored 25.2.

The call was wrong: Tyler Shough outscored Baker Mayfield by 13.6.

Baker Mayfield, Week 1 against CIN: 57 of 57 snaps, 23 of 28 passes for 216 yards, 0 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 5 carries for 30 yards, 11.6 PPR points.

Baker Mayfield finished as the week's QB27 in PPR scoring.

Tyler Shough finished 23.7 points above the 1.5 the props implied.

Tyler Shough, Week 1 against DET: 90 of 90 snaps, 35 of 56 passes for 410 yards, 3 touchdowns and 2 interceptions, 4 carries for 8 yards, 25.2 PPR points.

Tyler Shough finished as the week's QB6 in PPR scoring.

Their other Week 1 calls

• Start Bo Nix over Baker Mayfield.
• Start Jaxson Dart over Baker Mayfield.
• Start Baker Mayfield over Jordan Love.
• Start Tyler Shough over C.J. Stroud.
• Start Tyler Shough over Daniel Jones.
• Start Jaxson Dart over Tyler Shough.