Start Hunter Henry or Dalton Kincaid? Week 1

Our Week 1 call

Start Dalton Kincaid over Hunter Henry in Week 1.

De-vigged player props project Dalton Kincaid at 3.8 points and Hunter Henry at 2.6, a gap of 1.2. That is inside the noise of a single catch, so treat it as close to a coin flip. Drafters take Dalton Kincaid at ADP 157 and Hunter Henry at 171. Market coverage on Dalton Kincaid is 40 percent of what his position needs, so the market side of this carries proportionally less weight.

What the books imply

Player prop markets imply 3.8 fantasy points for Dalton Kincaid, with 40 percent of the markets a TE needs posted.

Player prop markets imply 2.6 fantasy points for Hunter Henry, with 33 percent of the markets a TE needs posted.

That puts Dalton Kincaid 1.2 points ahead of Hunter Henry on the books.

Week 1 matchups

Dalton Kincaid and BUF visit HOU on Sunday at 1:00 PM ET.

HOU allowed 19.7 fantasy points to TEs in its one game this season, the 6th most in the league.

Tight ends caught passes for 137 yards and no touchdowns against HOU.

Hunter Henry and NE visit SEA on Wednesday at 8:20 PM ET.

SEA allowed 12.8 fantasy points to TEs in its one game this season, the 15th most in the league.

Tight ends caught passes for 28 yards and a touchdown against SEA.

By points allowed to the position, Dalton Kincaid has the softer matchup.

Injury status

Dalton Kincaid was not on the injury report when the call was made.

Hunter Henry was not on the injury report when the call was made.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025, Dalton Kincaid played 12 games for BUF and scored 126.1 PPR points, 10.5 a game, finishing TE20.

He caught 39 of 49 targets for 571 yards and 5 touchdowns, with 6 red zone targets and 312 air yards.

He was on the field for 40 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Dalton Kincaid, Week 18 of 2025 against NYJ: 3 targets and 3 catches for 48 yards, 7.8 PPR points.

Dalton Kincaid, Week 16 of 2025 against CLE: 19 of 50 snaps, 1 target and 0 catches for 0 yards.

Dalton Kincaid, Week 15 of 2025 against NE: 25 of 70 snaps, 4 targets and 3 catches for 34 yards, 6.4 PPR points.

In 2025, Hunter Henry played 17 games for NE and scored 178.8 PPR points, 10.5 a game, finishing TE9.

He caught 60 of 87 targets for 768 yards and 7 touchdowns, with 22 red zone targets and 433 air yards.

He was on the field for 81 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Hunter Henry, Week 18 of 2025 against MIA: 5 targets and 5 catches for 56 yards, 10.6 PPR points.

Hunter Henry, Week 17 of 2025 against NYJ: 43 of 66 snaps, 3 targets and 3 catches for 49 yards, 1 touchdown, 13.9 PPR points.

Hunter Henry, Week 16 of 2025 against BAL: 60 of 74 snaps, 7 targets and 6 catches for 35 yards, 1 touchdown, 15.5 PPR points.

How Week 1 went

Dalton Kincaid scored 18.0 PPR points and Hunter Henry scored 5.6.

The call was right: Dalton Kincaid outscored Hunter Henry by 12.4.

Dalton Kincaid finished 14.2 points above the 3.8 the props implied.

Dalton Kincaid, Week 1 against HOU: 42 of 58 snaps, 6 targets and 5 catches for 130 yards, 18.0 PPR points.

Dalton Kincaid finished as the week's TE5 in PPR scoring.

Hunter Henry finished 3.0 points above the 2.6 the props implied.

Hunter Henry, Week 1 against SEA: 54 of 71 snaps, 3 targets and 3 catches for 26 yards, 5.6 PPR points.

Hunter Henry finished as the week's TE25 in PPR scoring.

Their other Week 1 calls

• Start Dalton Kincaid over Brenton Strange.
• Start Dallas Goedert over Dalton Kincaid.
• Start Dalton Kincaid over Isaiah Likely.
• Start Hunter Henry over Brenton Strange.
• Start Hunter Henry over Greg Dulcich.
• Start Isaiah Likely over Hunter Henry.