Start Dalton Kincaid or Brenton Strange? Week 1
Locked at kickoff. Graded after.
Start Dalton Kincaid over Brenton Strange
Right: 18.0 to 10.3Corrected Sep 15: regraded against official Sleeper stats (was Wrong, now Right)
- Books implied
- 3.8
- pre-game
- HOU D vs TE
- 19.7
- 6th most to TEs (2026)
- Snap share
- 72%
- Week 1
- Target share
- 21%
- Week 1
- Scored
- 18.0
- PPR pts
- CLE D vs TE
- 12.2
- 16th fewest to TEs (2026)
- Snap share
- 68%
- Week 1
- Target share
- 14%
- Week 1
- Scored
- 10.3
- PPR pts
Our Week 1 call
Start Dalton Kincaid over Brenton Strange in Week 1.
Dalton Kincaid is priced by the books at 3.8 projected points. Brenton Strange has no player market posted for this week, so his side of this call rests on consensus ADP and the news wire only. Drafters take Dalton Kincaid at ADP 157 and Brenton Strange at 187. Market coverage on Dalton Kincaid is 40 percent of what his position needs, so the market side of this carries proportionally less weight.
What the books imply
Player prop markets imply 3.8 fantasy points for Dalton Kincaid, with 40 percent of the markets a TE needs posted.
No sportsbook posted a player market for Brenton Strange in Week 1.
Week 1 matchups
Dalton Kincaid and BUF visit HOU on Sunday at 1:00 PM ET.
HOU allowed 19.7 fantasy points to TEs in its one game this season, the 6th most in the league.
Tight ends caught passes for 137 yards and no touchdowns against HOU.
Brenton Strange and JAX host CLE.
CLE allowed 12.2 fantasy points to TEs in its one game this season, the 16th fewest in the league.
Tight ends caught passes for 32 yards and a touchdown against CLE.
By points allowed to the position, Dalton Kincaid has the softer matchup.
Injury status
Dalton Kincaid was not on the injury report when the call was made.
Brenton Strange was not on the injury report when the call was made.
Their 2025 seasons
In 2025, Dalton Kincaid played 12 games for BUF and scored 126.1 PPR points, 10.5 a game, finishing TE20.
He caught 39 of 49 targets for 571 yards and 5 touchdowns, with 6 red zone targets and 312 air yards.
He was on the field for 40 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.
Dalton Kincaid, Week 18 of 2025 against NYJ: 3 targets and 3 catches for 48 yards, 7.8 PPR points.
Dalton Kincaid, Week 16 of 2025 against CLE: 19 of 50 snaps, 1 target and 0 catches for 0 yards.
Dalton Kincaid, Week 15 of 2025 against NE: 25 of 70 snaps, 4 targets and 3 catches for 34 yards, 6.4 PPR points.
In 2025, Brenton Strange played 12 games for JAX and scored 118.0 PPR points, 9.8 a game, finishing TE23.
He caught 46 of 60 targets for 540 yards and 3 touchdowns, with 9 red zone targets and 293 air yards.
He was on the field for 76 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.
Brenton Strange, Week 18 of 2025 against TEN: 6 targets and 6 catches for 52 yards, 1 touchdown, 17.2 PPR points.
Brenton Strange, Week 17 of 2025 against IND: 56 of 69 snaps, 5 targets and 3 catches for 54 yards, 8.4 PPR points.
Brenton Strange, Week 16 of 2025 against DEN: 52 of 70 snaps, 7 targets and 5 catches for 39 yards, 1 touchdown, 14.9 PPR points.
How Week 1 went
Dalton Kincaid scored 18.0 PPR points and Brenton Strange scored 10.3.
The call was right: Dalton Kincaid outscored Brenton Strange by 7.7.
Dalton Kincaid finished 14.2 points above the 3.8 the props implied.
Dalton Kincaid, Week 1 against HOU: 42 of 58 snaps, 6 targets and 5 catches for 130 yards, 18.0 PPR points.
Dalton Kincaid finished as the week's TE5 in PPR scoring.
Brenton Strange, Week 1 against CLE: 39 of 57 snaps, 3 targets and 2 catches for 23 yards, 1 touchdown, 10.3 PPR points.
Brenton Strange finished as the week's TE15 in PPR scoring.
Their other Week 1 calls
The board cards are draft figures, not the week's call. This call locked at kickoff and was not edited after. It is on the public record, wrong ones included.
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