Start Deebo Samuel Sr. or KC Concepcion Jr.? Week 1
Locks at kickoff, graded after.
Start Deebo Samuel Sr. over KC Concepcion
Right: 18.0 to 7.8- Books imply
- 3.9
- fantasy pts
- LAR D vs WR
- 47.9
- 4th most to WRs (2026)
- Snap share
- 42%
- Week 1
- Target share
- 21%
- Week 1
- Scored
- 18.0
- PPR pts
- JAX D vs WR
- 26.3
- 15th fewest to WRs (2026)
- Snap share
- 69%
- Week 1
- Target share
- 23%
- Week 1
- Scored
- 7.8
- PPR pts
Our Week 1 call
Start Deebo Samuel Sr. over KC Concepcion in Week 1.
Deebo Samuel Sr. is priced by the books at 3.9 projected points. KC Concepcion has no player market posted for this week, so his side of this call rests on consensus ADP and the news wire only. Drafters take Deebo Samuel Sr. at ADP 119 and KC Concepcion at 122. Market coverage on Deebo Samuel Sr. is 60 percent of what his position needs, so the market side of this carries proportionally less weight.
What the books imply
Player prop markets imply 3.9 fantasy points for Deebo Samuel Sr., with 60 percent of the markets a WR needs posted.
No sportsbook posted a player market for KC Concepcion in Week 1.
Week 1 matchups
Deebo Samuel Sr. and SF visit LAR on Thursday at 8:35 PM ET.
LAR allowed 47.9 fantasy points to WRs in its one game this season, the 4th most in the league.
Receivers caught passes for 147 yards and 3 touchdowns against LAR.
KC Concepcion and CLE visit JAX.
JAX allowed 26.3 fantasy points to WRs in its one game this season, the 15th fewest in the league.
Receivers caught passes for 128 yards and a touchdown against JAX.
By points allowed to the position, Deebo Samuel Sr. has the softer matchup.
Injury status
Deebo Samuel Sr. was not on the injury report when the call was made.
KC Concepcion was not on the injury report when the call was made.
Their 2025 seasons
In 2025, Deebo Samuel Sr. played 16 games for WAS and scored 188.2 PPR points, 11.8 a game, finishing WR25.
He caught 72 of 99 targets for 727 yards and 5 touchdowns, with 11 red zone targets and 261 air yards.
He was on the field for 72 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.
Deebo Samuel Sr., Week 18 of 2025 against PHI: 2 carries for 1 yards, 5 targets and 2 catches for 20 yards, 4.1 PPR points.
Deebo Samuel Sr., Week 17 of 2025 against DAL: 36 of 44 snaps, 2 carries for 25 yards, 4 targets and 2 catches for 68 yards, 11.3 PPR points.
Deebo Samuel Sr., Week 16 of 2025 against PHI: 44 of 54 snaps, 4 targets and 3 catches for 35 yards, 6.5 PPR points.
How Week 1 went
Deebo Samuel Sr. scored 18.0 PPR points and KC Concepcion scored 7.8.
The call was right: Deebo Samuel Sr. outscored KC Concepcion by 10.2.
Deebo Samuel Sr. finished 14.1 points above the 3.9 the props implied.
Deebo Samuel Sr., Week 1 against LAR: 27 of 65 snaps, 1 carry for 12 yards, 7 targets and 6 catches for 48 yards, 1 touchdown, 18.0 PPR points.
Deebo Samuel Sr. finished as the week's WR13 in PPR scoring.
KC Concepcion, Week 1 against JAX: 35 of 51 snaps, 3 carries for 15 yards, 5 targets and 4 catches for 43 yards, 7.8 PPR points.
KC Concepcion finished as the week's WR51 in PPR scoring.
Their other Week 1 calls
On the draft board
Ranked ahead
WR4 · SF · bye 8
2025 vs rec yds line 8-8
- Overall rank
- 10
- Draft pick
- ADP 10
- Tier
- 4
Ranked behind
WR74 · CLE · bye 11
- Overall rank
- 195
- Draft pick
- no consensus
- Tier
- 10
The board cards are draft figures, not the week's call. Locks at kickoff, graded after. When the start/sit engine grades week 1, the call and the result appear on the public record, wrong ones included.
The gap between them
- Spots apart on the board185
- Pick differencenot comparable without a consensus on both
- Tierstier 4 and tier 10
- Board size244 draftable players
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