Start George Pickens or Zay Flowers? Week 1

Our Week 1 call

Start George Pickens over Zay Flowers in Week 1.

De-vigged player props project George Pickens at 2.9 points and Zay Flowers at 2.6, a gap of 0.3. That is inside the noise of a single catch, so treat it as close to a coin flip. Drafters take George Pickens at ADP 24 and Zay Flowers at 25. Market coverage on George Pickens is 33 percent of what his position needs, so the market side of this carries proportionally less weight.

What the books imply

Player prop markets imply 2.9 fantasy points for George Pickens, with 33 percent of the markets a WR needs posted.

Player prop markets imply 2.6 fantasy points for Zay Flowers, with 70 percent of the markets a WR needs posted.

That puts George Pickens 0.3 points ahead of Zay Flowers on the books.

Week 1 matchups

George Pickens and DAL visit NYG on Sunday at 8:20 PM ET.

NYG allowed 29.2 fantasy points to WRs in its one game this season, the 15th most in the league.

Receivers caught passes for 112 yards and a touchdown against NYG.

Zay Flowers and BAL visit IND on Sunday at 1:00 PM ET.

IND allowed 37.9 fantasy points to WRs in its one game this season, the 9th most in the league.

Receivers caught passes for 229 yards and a touchdown against IND.

By points allowed to the position, Zay Flowers has the softer matchup.

Injury status

George Pickens was not on the injury report when the call was made.

Zay Flowers was not on the injury report when the call was made.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025, George Pickens played 17 games for DAL and scored 291.9 PPR points, 17.2 a game, finishing WR5.

He caught 93 of 137 targets for 1429 yards and 9 touchdowns, with 21 red zone targets and 950 air yards.

He was on the field for 83 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

George Pickens, Week 18 of 2025 against NYG: 3 targets and 1 catch for 9 yards, 1.9 PPR points.

George Pickens, Week 17 of 2025 against WAS: 80 of 92 snaps, 5 targets and 4 catches for 78 yards, 11.8 PPR points.

George Pickens, Week 16 of 2025 against LAC: 51 of 58 snaps, 9 targets and 7 catches for 130 yards, 1 touchdown, 26.0 PPR points.

In 2025, Zay Flowers played 17 games for BAL and scored 243.3 PPR points, 14.3 a game, finishing WR7.

He caught 86 of 118 targets for 1211 yards and 5 touchdowns, with 10 red zone targets and 753 air yards.

He was on the field for 86 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Zay Flowers, Week 18 of 2025 against PIT: 6 targets and 4 catches for 138 yards, 2 touchdowns, 29.8 PPR points.

Zay Flowers, Week 17 of 2025 against GB: 52 of 76 snaps, 5 targets and 4 catches for 30 yards, 1 touchdown, 13.0 PPR points.

Zay Flowers, Week 16 of 2025 against NE: 49 of 55 snaps, 1 carry for 18 yards, 7 targets and 7 catches for 84 yards, 1 touchdown, 21.2 PPR points.

How Week 1 went

George Pickens scored 5.8 PPR points and Zay Flowers scored 26.0.

The call was wrong: Zay Flowers outscored George Pickens by 20.2.

George Pickens finished 2.9 points above the 2.9 the props implied.

George Pickens, Week 1 against NYG: 49 of 58 snaps, 6 targets and 3 catches for 28 yards, 5.8 PPR points.

George Pickens finished as the week's WR63 in PPR scoring.

Zay Flowers finished 23.4 points above the 2.6 the props implied.

Zay Flowers, Week 1 against IND: 20 of 68 snaps, 6 targets and 5 catches for 150 yards, 1 touchdown, 26.0 PPR points.

Zay Flowers finished as the week's WR7 in PPR scoring.

Their other Week 1 calls

• Start George Pickens over A.J. Brown.
• Start George Pickens over Chris Olave.
• Start George Pickens over DeVonta Smith.
• Start Chris Olave over Zay Flowers.
• Start DeVonta Smith over Zay Flowers.
• Start Garrett Wilson over Zay Flowers.